Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the southwest monsoon are keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal in Manila, with official forecasts pointing to a minimum temperature of 25–26°C on September 14. Thunderstorm activity and light variable winds further suppress temperature drops, consistent with typical September climatology where average lows range 24–26°C amid frequent rain. Trader positioning reflects this, with the tight clustering around 25–26°C outcomes and the near-even split between the 30°C+ and 20°C-or-below brackets highlighting uncertainty over whether any brief clearing or heavier rain could shift the minimum by a degree or two. No major weather systems are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Manila on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Manila on September 14?
20°C or below 57%
30°C or higher 57%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
57%
21°C
13%
22°C
16%
23°C
39%
24°C
26%
25°C
30%
26°C
32%
27°C
39%
28°C
38%
29°C
16%
30°C or higher
57%
20°C or below 57%
30°C or higher 57%
25°C 40%
26°C 40%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
20°C or below
$0 Vol.
57%
21°C
$0 Vol.
13%
22°C
$0 Vol.
16%
23°C
$0 Vol.
39%
24°C
$131 Vol.
26%
25°C
$5 Vol.
30%
26°C
$5 Vol.
32%
27°C
$0 Vol.
39%
28°C
$0 Vol.
38%
29°C
$0 Vol.
16%
30°C or higher
$0 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the southwest monsoon are keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal in Manila, with official forecasts pointing to a minimum temperature of 25–26°C on September 14. Thunderstorm activity and light variable winds further suppress temperature drops, consistent with typical September climatology where average lows range 24–26°C amid frequent rain. Trader positioning reflects this, with the tight clustering around 25–26°C outcomes and the near-even split between the 30°C+ and 20°C-or-below brackets highlighting uncertainty over whether any brief clearing or heavier rain could shift the minimum by a degree or two. No major weather systems are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
Volume
$141End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the southwest monsoon are keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal in Manila, with official forecasts pointing to a minimum temperature of 25–26°C on September 14. Thunderstorm activity and light variable winds further suppress temperature drops, consistent with typical September climatology where average lows range 24–26°C amid frequent rain. Trader positioning reflects this, with the tight clustering around 25–26°C outcomes and the near-even split between the 30°C+ and 20°C-or-below brackets highlighting uncertainty over whether any brief clearing or heavier rain could shift the minimum by a degree or two. No major weather systems are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$141End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:32 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent cloud cover and high humidity from the southwest monsoon are keeping overnight radiative cooling minimal in Manila, with official forecasts pointing to a minimum temperature of 25–26°C on September 14. Thunderstorm activity and light variable winds further suppress temperature drops, consistent with typical September climatology where average lows range 24–26°C amid frequent rain. Trader positioning reflects this, with the tight clustering around 25–26°C outcomes and the near-even split between the 30°C+ and 20°C-or-below brackets highlighting uncertainty over whether any brief clearing or heavier rain could shift the minimum by a degree or two. No major weather systems are expected to alter the pattern before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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