Manila's typical September daytime highs average 31–32°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorms limiting solar heating and preventing extremes. Official forecasts and model consensus for September 13, 2026, point to a maximum near 32°C, consistent with recent observations and seasonal baselines that rarely deviate sharply on any single day. The market's overwhelming 98.5% implied probability on 32°C reflects this alignment of climatology and current guidance. A notable shift in steering patterns or unexpected clearing could allow temperatures to reach 33°C or higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the peak below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on September 13?
Highest temperature in Manila on September 13?
32°C 99%
33°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
$22,251 Vol.
$22,251 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
99%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
32°C 99%
33°C <1%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
$22,251 Vol.
$22,251 Vol.
Sep 13, 2026
24°C or below
$247 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$287 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$275 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$113 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$1,249 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$2,635 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$2,072 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,964 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$5,259 Vol.
99%
33°C
$3,215 Vol.
<1%
34°C or higher
$1,935 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Manila's typical September daytime highs average 31–32°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorms limiting solar heating and preventing extremes. Official forecasts and model consensus for September 13, 2026, point to a maximum near 32°C, consistent with recent observations and seasonal baselines that rarely deviate sharply on any single day. The market's overwhelming 98.5% implied probability on 32°C reflects this alignment of climatology and current guidance. A notable shift in steering patterns or unexpected clearing could allow temperatures to reach 33°C or higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the peak below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$22,251End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Manila's typical September daytime highs average 31–32°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorms limiting solar heating and preventing extremes. Official forecasts and model consensus for September 13, 2026, point to a maximum near 32°C, consistent with recent observations and seasonal baselines that rarely deviate sharply on any single day. The market's overwhelming 98.5% implied probability on 32°C reflects this alignment of climatology and current guidance. A notable shift in steering patterns or unexpected clearing could allow temperatures to reach 33°C or higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the peak below the threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$22,251End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpllResolver
0x69c47De9D...Manila's typical September daytime highs average 31–32°C amid the southwest monsoon, with high humidity, frequent cloud cover, and afternoon thunderstorms limiting solar heating and preventing extremes. Official forecasts and model consensus for September 13, 2026, point to a maximum near 32°C, consistent with recent observations and seasonal baselines that rarely deviate sharply on any single day. The market's overwhelming 98.5% implied probability on 32°C reflects this alignment of climatology and current guidance. A notable shift in steering patterns or unexpected clearing could allow temperatures to reach 33°C or higher, while heavier or earlier rainfall might cap the peak below the threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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