**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 14, 2026, under continued warm, humid southerly flow.** Persistent high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns support minimum temperatures near 79–81°F, aligning with the market’s leading 78–79°F outcome (43.5% implied probability). Historical September averages near 73°F provide context, but current conditions show no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to drive notable cooling. The 71°F-or-below bucket (28%) reflects the low probability of an unusually sharp drop, while higher ranges capture residual uncertainty in exact model guidance or localized effects. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance showing only modest day-to-day variation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Houston on September 14?
Lowest temperature in Houston on September 14?
71°F or below 71%
90°F or higher 71%
78-79°F 51%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
71°F or below
71%
72-73°F
39%
74-75°F
39%
76-77°F
21%
78-79°F
39%
80-81°F
24%
82-83°F
38%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90°F or higher
71%
71°F or below 71%
90°F or higher 71%
78-79°F 51%
72-73°F 39%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
71%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
39%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
39%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
21%
78-79°F
$107 Vol.
39%
80-81°F
$393 Vol.
24%
82-83°F
$42 Vol.
38%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
17%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
17%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
17%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
71%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 14, 2026, under continued warm, humid southerly flow.**
Persistent high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns support minimum temperatures near 79–81°F, aligning with the market’s leading 78–79°F outcome (43.5% implied probability). Historical September averages near 73°F provide context, but current conditions show no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to drive notable cooling.
The 71°F-or-below bucket (28%) reflects the low probability of an unusually sharp drop, while higher ranges capture residual uncertainty in exact model guidance or localized effects. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance showing only modest day-to-day variation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Volume
$541End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 14, 2026, under continued warm, humid southerly flow.**
Persistent high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns support minimum temperatures near 79–81°F, aligning with the market’s leading 78–79°F outcome (43.5% implied probability). Historical September averages near 73°F provide context, but current conditions show no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to drive notable cooling.
The 71°F-or-below bucket (28%) reflects the low probability of an unusually sharp drop, while higher ranges capture residual uncertainty in exact model guidance or localized effects. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance showing only modest day-to-day variation.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khou
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$541End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 3:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khouResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus from the National Weather Service and multiple models points to an overnight low in the upper 70s to low 80s for Houston on September 14, 2026, under continued warm, humid southerly flow.** Persistent high pressure and typical late-summer steering patterns support minimum temperatures near 79–81°F, aligning with the market’s leading 78–79°F outcome (43.5% implied probability). Historical September averages near 73°F provide context, but current conditions show no incoming cold front or significant cloud cover to drive notable cooling. The 71°F-or-below bucket (28%) reflects the low probability of an unusually sharp drop, while higher ranges capture residual uncertainty in exact model guidance or localized effects. No major forecast shifts have occurred in the past 24–48 hours, keeping trader sentiment anchored to official guidance showing only modest day-to-day variation.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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Frequently Asked Questions