Recent forecast consensus from multiple models, including those referenced by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, points to an overnight low of exactly 25°C in Guangzhou on August 30 amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered rain limiting radiational cooling. Current observations show temperatures stabilizing near 26°C through evening with dew points around 25°C, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 25.1°C and reducing the likelihood of notable deviations. This scientific alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 25°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky window or measurement variance at official stations dropping the minimum to 24°C or holding at 26°C, though model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
Lowest temperature in Guangzhou on August 30?
25°C 100.0%
23°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$1,047 Vol.
$1,047 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
No
23°C
No
24°C
No
25°C
Yes
26°C
No
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C or higher
No
25°C 100.0%
23°C 1.0%
22°C or below <1%
24°C <1%
$1,047 Vol.
$1,047 Vol.
Aug 30, 2026
22°C or below
$68 Vol.
No
23°C
$60 Vol.
No
24°C
$99 Vol.
No
25°C
$199 Vol.
Yes
26°C
$219 Vol.
No
27°C
$231 Vol.
No
28°C
$62 Vol.
No
29°C
$25 Vol.
No
30°C
$40 Vol.
No
31°C
$15 Vol.
No
32°C or higher
$30 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models, including those referenced by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, points to an overnight low of exactly 25°C in Guangzhou on August 30 amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered rain limiting radiational cooling. Current observations show temperatures stabilizing near 26°C through evening with dew points around 25°C, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 25.1°C and reducing the likelihood of notable deviations. This scientific alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 25°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky window or measurement variance at official stations dropping the minimum to 24°C or holding at 26°C, though model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,047End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from multiple models, including those referenced by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, points to an overnight low of exactly 25°C in Guangzhou on August 30 amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered rain limiting radiational cooling. Current observations show temperatures stabilizing near 26°C through evening with dew points around 25°C, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 25.1°C and reducing the likelihood of notable deviations. This scientific alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 25°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky window or measurement variance at official stations dropping the minimum to 24°C or holding at 26°C, though model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 30 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zggg
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,047End Date
Aug 30, 2026Market Opened
Aug 28, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zgggResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Recent forecast consensus from multiple models, including those referenced by agencies like the China Meteorological Administration, points to an overnight low of exactly 25°C in Guangzhou on August 30 amid persistent cloud cover, high humidity near 90%, and scattered rain limiting radiational cooling. Current observations show temperatures stabilizing near 26°C through evening with dew points around 25°C, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average low of 25.1°C and reducing the likelihood of notable deviations. This scientific alignment underpins the near-certain market-implied odds for 25°C. A realistic challenge would require an unforecasted clear-sky window or measurement variance at official stations dropping the minimum to 24°C or holding at 26°C, though model agreement makes such shifts improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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