Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 61°F in Denver on September 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 60-61°F bin that commands 95.5% market-implied odds. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological normal low of 54°F amid clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions that limited nocturnal cooling. Model guidance and real-time station data converged on this outcome well before resolution, reflecting stable high-pressure dominance and seasonal late-summer warmth. Outliers such as 55°F or below or 62°F+ carry negligible probabilities because they would require either unverified station discrepancies or rapid unforecasted changes inconsistent with NOAA verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Denver on September 4?
Lowest temperature in Denver on September 4?
60-61°F 99.5%
56-57°F 1.0%
55°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
$3,234 Vol.
$3,234 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
No
56-57°F
No
58-59°F
No
60-61°F
Yes
62-63°F
No
64-65°F
No
66-67°F
No
68-69°F
No
70-71°F
No
72-73°F
No
74°F or higher
No
60-61°F 99.5%
56-57°F 1.0%
55°F or below <1%
58-59°F <1%
$3,234 Vol.
$3,234 Vol.
Sep 4, 2026
55°F or below
$1,648 Vol.
No
56-57°F
$22 Vol.
No
58-59°F
$60 Vol.
No
60-61°F
$416 Vol.
Yes
62-63°F
$183 Vol.
No
64-65°F
$189 Vol.
No
66-67°F
$247 Vol.
No
68-69°F
$145 Vol.
No
70-71°F
$130 Vol.
No
72-73°F
$147 Vol.
No
74°F or higher
$47 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 61°F in Denver on September 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 60-61°F bin that commands 95.5% market-implied odds. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological normal low of 54°F amid clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions that limited nocturnal cooling. Model guidance and real-time station data converged on this outcome well before resolution, reflecting stable high-pressure dominance and seasonal late-summer warmth. Outliers such as 55°F or below or 62°F+ carry negligible probabilities because they would require either unverified station discrepancies or rapid unforecasted changes inconsistent with NOAA verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ET
Volume
$3,234End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 61°F in Denver on September 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 60-61°F bin that commands 95.5% market-implied odds. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological normal low of 54°F amid clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions that limited nocturnal cooling. Model guidance and real-time station data converged on this outcome well before resolution, reflecting stable high-pressure dominance and seasonal late-summer warmth. Outliers such as 55°F or below or 62°F+ carry negligible probabilities because they would require either unverified station discrepancies or rapid unforecasted changes inconsistent with NOAA verification protocols.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Buckley Space Force Base Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkf
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,234End Date
Sep 4, 2026Market Opened
Sep 2, 2026, 3:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kbkfResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Official National Weather Service observations recorded a minimum temperature of 61°F in Denver on September 4, 2026, aligning precisely with the 60-61°F bin that commands 95.5% market-implied odds. This value exceeded the 1991–2020 climatological normal low of 54°F amid clear skies, light winds, and dry conditions that limited nocturnal cooling. Model guidance and real-time station data converged on this outcome well before resolution, reflecting stable high-pressure dominance and seasonal late-summer warmth. Outliers such as 55°F or below or 62°F+ carry negligible probabilities because they would require either unverified station discrepancies or rapid unforecasted changes inconsistent with NOAA verification protocols.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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