Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu’s overnight low on September 13 around 17–18 °C, with trader-implied odds clustered at 55 % for 18 °C and 45.5 % for 17 °C. Light southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers limit radiative cooling over the Sichuan Basin, while elevated humidity near 70–80 % further moderates the drop. Historical September climatology shows typical lows near 19 °C, but recent upstream cold-air intrusions and soil moisture from prior rain have nudged readings slightly lower. Model spread remains modest, with only small differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts that could tip the minimum by 1 °C. Fresh surface observations and updated runs through the evening will determine whether the floor settles at 17 °C or holds at 18 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Chengdu on September 13?
Lowest temperature in Chengdu on September 13?
15°C 90%
16°C 90%
17°C 46%
14°C or below 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
45%
15°C
90%
16°C
90%
17°C
46%
18°C
-
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C or higher
<1%
15°C 90%
16°C 90%
17°C 46%
14°C or below 45%
NEW
NEW
Sep 13, 2026
14°C or below
$0 Vol.
45%
15°C
$0 Vol.
90%
16°C
$0 Vol.
90%
17°C
$47 Vol.
46%
18°C
$42 Vol.
-
19°C
$260 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$55 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$15 Vol.
<1%
24°C or higher
$15 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu’s overnight low on September 13 around 17–18 °C, with trader-implied odds clustered at 55 % for 18 °C and 45.5 % for 17 °C. Light southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers limit radiative cooling over the Sichuan Basin, while elevated humidity near 70–80 % further moderates the drop. Historical September climatology shows typical lows near 19 °C, but recent upstream cold-air intrusions and soil moisture from prior rain have nudged readings slightly lower. Model spread remains modest, with only small differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts that could tip the minimum by 1 °C. Fresh surface observations and updated runs through the evening will determine whether the floor settles at 17 °C or holds at 18 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Volume
$464End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu’s overnight low on September 13 around 17–18 °C, with trader-implied odds clustered at 55 % for 18 °C and 45.5 % for 17 °C. Light southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers limit radiative cooling over the Sichuan Basin, while elevated humidity near 70–80 % further moderates the drop. Historical September climatology shows typical lows near 19 °C, but recent upstream cold-air intrusions and soil moisture from prior rain have nudged readings slightly lower. Model spread remains modest, with only small differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts that could tip the minimum by 1 °C. Fresh surface observations and updated runs through the evening will determine whether the floor settles at 17 °C or holds at 18 °C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 13 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$464End Date
Sep 13, 2026Market Opened
Sep 11, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from multiple models place Chengdu’s overnight low on September 13 around 17–18 °C, with trader-implied odds clustered at 55 % for 18 °C and 45.5 % for 17 °C. Light southwesterly winds, persistent cloud cover, and scattered showers limit radiative cooling over the Sichuan Basin, while elevated humidity near 70–80 % further moderates the drop. Historical September climatology shows typical lows near 19 °C, but recent upstream cold-air intrusions and soil moisture from prior rain have nudged readings slightly lower. Model spread remains modest, with only small differences in timing of clearing skies or wind shifts that could tip the minimum by 1 °C. Fresh surface observations and updated runs through the evening will determine whether the floor settles at 17 °C or holds at 18 °C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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