Recent forecast guidance from multiple models shows persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and a chance of light rain or drizzle on September 14 limiting solar heating in the Sichuan basin, where topography often traps moisture and moderates extremes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 25°C, with consensus across sources pointing to 24–27°C depending on the exact timing of any showers and cloud thickness. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs, as small shifts in precipitation onset or boundary-layer mixing could easily tip the observed high by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 14?
25°C 28%
24°C 24%
26°C 22%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
4%
23°C
8%
24°C
24%
25°C
28%
26°C
22%
27°C
11%
28°C
6%
29°C
2%
30°C
1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
25°C 28%
24°C 24%
26°C 22%
27°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
22°C or below
$169 Vol.
4%
23°C
$208 Vol.
8%
24°C
$991 Vol.
24%
25°C
$247 Vol.
28%
26°C
$285 Vol.
22%
27°C
$393 Vol.
11%
28°C
$161 Vol.
6%
29°C
$232 Vol.
2%
30°C
$130 Vol.
1%
31°C
$303 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$315 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from multiple models shows persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and a chance of light rain or drizzle on September 14 limiting solar heating in the Sichuan basin, where topography often traps moisture and moderates extremes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 25°C, with consensus across sources pointing to 24–27°C depending on the exact timing of any showers and cloud thickness. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs, as small shifts in precipitation onset or boundary-layer mixing could easily tip the observed high by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$3,435End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from multiple models shows persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and a chance of light rain or drizzle on September 14 limiting solar heating in the Sichuan basin, where topography often traps moisture and moderates extremes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 25°C, with consensus across sources pointing to 24–27°C depending on the exact timing of any showers and cloud thickness. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs, as small shifts in precipitation onset or boundary-layer mixing could easily tip the observed high by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuu
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,435End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zuuuResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from multiple models shows persistent cloud cover, light northeasterly winds, and a chance of light rain or drizzle on September 14 limiting solar heating in the Sichuan basin, where topography often traps moisture and moderates extremes. This setup favors a daily maximum near 25°C, with consensus across sources pointing to 24–27°C depending on the exact timing of any showers and cloud thickness. The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 24–26°C reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range model runs, as small shifts in precipitation onset or boundary-layer mixing could easily tip the observed high by 1–2°C. Updated model guidance and official observations tomorrow morning will provide the clearest signals for resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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