Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF, consistent with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate clear to mostly clear conditions over Cape Town on September 8 with light winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 16°C under typical spring radiative cooling. This aligns with the recent warm anomaly, where daily lows have run several degrees above the 9–11°C September climatological average amid persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because small variations in overnight dew points, wind patterns from the southeast, or model timing of any late cooling can shift the recorded minimum across the 14–18°C range, while historical September extremes (as low as 2°C or above 20°C) underscore the inherent spread in short-range temperature predictions. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will provide the key resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 8?
21°C or higher 66%
13°C 48%
17°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
14%
12°C
41%
13°C
48%
14°C
27%
15°C
28%
16°C
28%
17°C
48%
18°C
24%
19°C
48%
20°C
8%
21°C or higher
66%
21°C or higher 66%
13°C 48%
17°C 48%
19°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
11°C or below
$0 Vol.
14%
12°C
$0 Vol.
41%
13°C
$0 Vol.
48%
14°C
$0 Vol.
27%
15°C
$0 Vol.
28%
16°C
$0 Vol.
28%
17°C
$0 Vol.
48%
18°C
$34 Vol.
24%
19°C
$0 Vol.
48%
20°C
$0 Vol.
8%
21°C or higher
$0 Vol.
66%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF, consistent with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate clear to mostly clear conditions over Cape Town on September 8 with light winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 16°C under typical spring radiative cooling. This aligns with the recent warm anomaly, where daily lows have run several degrees above the 9–11°C September climatological average amid persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because small variations in overnight dew points, wind patterns from the southeast, or model timing of any late cooling can shift the recorded minimum across the 14–18°C range, while historical September extremes (as low as 2°C or above 20°C) underscore the inherent spread in short-range temperature predictions. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will provide the key resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ET
Volume
$34End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF, consistent with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate clear to mostly clear conditions over Cape Town on September 8 with light winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 16°C under typical spring radiative cooling. This aligns with the recent warm anomaly, where daily lows have run several degrees above the 9–11°C September climatological average amid persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because small variations in overnight dew points, wind patterns from the southeast, or model timing of any late cooling can shift the recorded minimum across the 14–18°C range, while historical September extremes (as low as 2°C or above 20°C) underscore the inherent spread in short-range temperature predictions. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will provide the key resolution data.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$34End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 1:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from models such as GFS and ECMWF, consistent with South African Weather Service guidance, indicate clear to mostly clear conditions over Cape Town on September 8 with light winds, supporting a minimum temperature near 16°C under typical spring radiative cooling. This aligns with the recent warm anomaly, where daily lows have run several degrees above the 9–11°C September climatological average amid persistent high pressure and minimal cloud cover. Trader-implied odds remain tightly clustered because small variations in overnight dew points, wind patterns from the southeast, or model timing of any late cooling can shift the recorded minimum across the 14–18°C range, while historical September extremes (as low as 2°C or above 20°C) underscore the inherent spread in short-range temperature predictions. Updated model runs and official minimum observations on the day will provide the key resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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