Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs favor near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s°F for San Francisco on September 8, driven by persistent onshore flow and a marine layer that limits daytime heating despite occasional clearing. This aligns with climatological averages near 70°F and early-September 2026 observations around 69–71°F, supporting market-implied odds concentrated in the 72–89°F ranges while assigning only minimal probability below 71°F. The elevated 50% implied probability on 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential model shifts from weakening low-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover that could allow brief warming, though historical September extremes above 90°F remain rare and typically tied to strong offshore flow not currently indicated. Updated NHC and NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in San Francisco on September 8?
Highest temperature in San Francisco on September 8?
80-81°F 36%
82-83°F 36%
78-79°F 32%
84-85°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
1%
72-73°F
16%
74-75°F
16%
76-77°F
20%
78-79°F
32%
80-81°F
36%
82-83°F
36%
84-85°F
29%
86-87°F
10%
88-89°F
18%
90°F or higher
17%
80-81°F 36%
82-83°F 36%
78-79°F 32%
84-85°F 29%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
71°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
16%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
16%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
20%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
32%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
36%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
36%
84-85°F
$0 Vol.
29%
86-87°F
$0 Vol.
10%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
18%
90°F or higher
$0 Vol.
17%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs favor near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s°F for San Francisco on September 8, driven by persistent onshore flow and a marine layer that limits daytime heating despite occasional clearing. This aligns with climatological averages near 70°F and early-September 2026 observations around 69–71°F, supporting market-implied odds concentrated in the 72–89°F ranges while assigning only minimal probability below 71°F. The elevated 50% implied probability on 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential model shifts from weakening low-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover that could allow brief warming, though historical September extremes above 90°F remain rare and typically tied to strong offshore flow not currently indicated. Updated NHC and NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs favor near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s°F for San Francisco on September 8, driven by persistent onshore flow and a marine layer that limits daytime heating despite occasional clearing. This aligns with climatological averages near 70°F and early-September 2026 observations around 69–71°F, supporting market-implied odds concentrated in the 72–89°F ranges while assigning only minimal probability below 71°F. The elevated 50% implied probability on 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential model shifts from weakening low-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover that could allow brief warming, though historical September extremes above 90°F remain rare and typically tied to strong offshore flow not currently indicated. Updated NHC and NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 7:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service guidance and ensemble model runs favor near-normal highs in the upper 60s to low 70s°F for San Francisco on September 8, driven by persistent onshore flow and a marine layer that limits daytime heating despite occasional clearing. This aligns with climatological averages near 70°F and early-September 2026 observations around 69–71°F, supporting market-implied odds concentrated in the 72–89°F ranges while assigning only minimal probability below 71°F. The elevated 50% implied probability on 90°F or higher reflects trader assessment of forecast uncertainty, including potential model shifts from weakening low-pressure systems or reduced cloud cover that could allow brief warming, though historical September extremes above 90°F remain rare and typically tied to strong offshore flow not currently indicated. Updated NHC and NOAA briefings over the next 48 hours will refine these thresholds ahead of market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions