**A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for São Paulo’s September 6 maximum temperature, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around 16–17 °C.** Southerly flow behind the front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain or drizzle are limiting daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, keeping highs well below the seasonal 23–25 °C average. Recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological services show daytime readings mainly in the 13–17 °C range, with the precise peak hinging on the timing of heaviest precipitation, boundary-layer mixing under the post-frontal high, and any brief clearing that could allow modest warming. Because the event occurs within 24 hours, small shifts in forecast timing or intensity can easily move the realized maximum between the closely priced 15–18 °C outcomes, which is why trader capital remains concentrated on those bins rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on September 6?
16°C 35%
17°C 29%
15°C 14%
18°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
4%
14°C
5%
15°C
14%
16°C
35%
17°C
29%
18°C
13%
19°C
4%
20°C
2%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
16°C 35%
17°C 29%
15°C 14%
18°C 13%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
13°C or below
$365 Vol.
4%
14°C
$109 Vol.
5%
15°C
$636 Vol.
14%
16°C
$328 Vol.
35%
17°C
$170 Vol.
29%
18°C
$265 Vol.
13%
19°C
$95 Vol.
4%
20°C
$64 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for São Paulo’s September 6 maximum temperature, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around 16–17 °C.** Southerly flow behind the front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain or drizzle are limiting daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, keeping highs well below the seasonal 23–25 °C average. Recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological services show daytime readings mainly in the 13–17 °C range, with the precise peak hinging on the timing of heaviest precipitation, boundary-layer mixing under the post-frontal high, and any brief clearing that could allow modest warming. Because the event occurs within 24 hours, small shifts in forecast timing or intensity can easily move the realized maximum between the closely priced 15–18 °C outcomes, which is why trader capital remains concentrated on those bins rather than extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ET
Volume
$2,033End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for São Paulo’s September 6 maximum temperature, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around 16–17 °C.** Southerly flow behind the front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain or drizzle are limiting daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, keeping highs well below the seasonal 23–25 °C average. Recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological services show daytime readings mainly in the 13–17 °C range, with the precise peak hinging on the timing of heaviest precipitation, boundary-layer mixing under the post-frontal high, and any brief clearing that could allow modest warming. Because the event occurs within 24 hours, small shifts in forecast timing or intensity can easily move the realized maximum between the closely priced 15–18 °C outcomes, which is why trader capital remains concentrated on those bins rather than extremes.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgr
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,033End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 8:55 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=sbgrResolver
0x69c47De9D...**A cold front advancing into southeastern Brazil is the dominant driver of trader sentiment for São Paulo’s September 6 maximum temperature, with market-implied odds clustering tightly around 16–17 °C.** Southerly flow behind the front, widespread cloud cover, and periods of rain or drizzle are limiting daytime insolation and evaporative cooling, keeping highs well below the seasonal 23–25 °C average. Recent model runs and official guidance from Brazilian meteorological services show daytime readings mainly in the 13–17 °C range, with the precise peak hinging on the timing of heaviest precipitation, boundary-layer mixing under the post-frontal high, and any brief clearing that could allow modest warming. Because the event occurs within 24 hours, small shifts in forecast timing or intensity can easily move the realized maximum between the closely priced 15–18 °C outcomes, which is why trader capital remains concentrated on those bins rather than extremes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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