Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight low for Buenos Aires on September 8 near 6–9 °C under partly clear skies and light northerly flow, favoring modest radiational cooling after daytime highs around 16–17 °C. This places the most likely minimum in the 5–8 °C band, yet the elevated 46.5 % market-implied probability on 3 °C or below reflects trader focus on potential stronger surface decoupling or a brief cold-air intrusion if winds drop further overnight. Conversely, the 29.5 % on 13 °C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or reduced cooling under increased cloud cover. Historical September minima average near 9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below normal while leaving room for model spread ahead of the final 24-hour update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Lowest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
3°C or below 93%
13°C or higher 93%
4°C 48%
6°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
93%
4°C
48%
5°C
27%
6°C
48%
7°C
26%
8°C
26%
9°C
19%
10°C
39%
11°C
20%
12°C
20%
13°C or higher
93%
3°C or below 93%
13°C or higher 93%
4°C 48%
6°C 48%
NEW
NEW
Sep 8, 2026
3°C or below
$0 Vol.
93%
4°C
$0 Vol.
48%
5°C
$0 Vol.
27%
6°C
$0 Vol.
48%
7°C
$0 Vol.
26%
8°C
$0 Vol.
26%
9°C
$0 Vol.
19%
10°C
$0 Vol.
39%
11°C
$0 Vol.
20%
12°C
$0 Vol.
20%
13°C or higher
$0 Vol.
93%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight low for Buenos Aires on September 8 near 6–9 °C under partly clear skies and light northerly flow, favoring modest radiational cooling after daytime highs around 16–17 °C. This places the most likely minimum in the 5–8 °C band, yet the elevated 46.5 % market-implied probability on 3 °C or below reflects trader focus on potential stronger surface decoupling or a brief cold-air intrusion if winds drop further overnight. Conversely, the 29.5 % on 13 °C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or reduced cooling under increased cloud cover. Historical September minima average near 9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below normal while leaving room for model spread ahead of the final 24-hour update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight low for Buenos Aires on September 8 near 6–9 °C under partly clear skies and light northerly flow, favoring modest radiational cooling after daytime highs around 16–17 °C. This places the most likely minimum in the 5–8 °C band, yet the elevated 46.5 % market-implied probability on 3 °C or below reflects trader focus on potential stronger surface decoupling or a brief cold-air intrusion if winds drop further overnight. Conversely, the 29.5 % on 13 °C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or reduced cooling under increased cloud cover. Historical September minima average near 9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below normal while leaving room for model spread ahead of the final 24-hour update.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 8 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saez
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$0End Date
Sep 8, 2026Market Opened
Sep 6, 2026, 8:29 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=saezResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from GFS and ECMWF runs positions the overnight low for Buenos Aires on September 8 near 6–9 °C under partly clear skies and light northerly flow, favoring modest radiational cooling after daytime highs around 16–17 °C. This places the most likely minimum in the 5–8 °C band, yet the elevated 46.5 % market-implied probability on 3 °C or below reflects trader focus on potential stronger surface decoupling or a brief cold-air intrusion if winds drop further overnight. Conversely, the 29.5 % on 13 °C or higher captures upside risk from warmer advection or reduced cooling under increased cloud cover. Historical September minima average near 9 °C, so current guidance sits slightly below normal while leaving room for model spread ahead of the final 24-hour update.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions