**Forecast consensus points to a daily maximum of 14–16°C in Moscow on September 6, 2026, under cloudy, rainy conditions that suppress temperatures below the long-term average high of ~18°C.** Multiple numerical weather models and official outlooks, including those from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles such as GFS, show persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and westerly flow limiting daytime heating. Hourly profiles indicate peaks near 15–16°C in the afternoon before cooling overnight. This range aligns directly with current market-implied probabilities, where 15°C leads at 44%, followed by 16°C at 25% and 14°C at 22%. Recent model runs have shown little change over the past 24–48 hours, reinforcing trader confidence in modest warming rather than the clearer, warmer conditions sometimes seen in early September. Historical analogs for similar late-summer setups with Atlantic moisture and zonal flow support maxima clustered in the mid-teens Celsius, with limited upside risk unless a forecast shift brings stronger ridging. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles, which could refine the exact peak if precipitation timing or cloud breaks evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 6?
15°C 44%
16°C 25%
14°C 22%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
1%
13°C
7%
14°C
22%
15°C
44%
16°C
25%
17°C
4%
18°C
2%
19°C
1%
20°C or higher
<1%
15°C 44%
16°C 25%
14°C 22%
13°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Sep 6, 2026
10°C or below
$634 Vol.
<1%
11°C
$176 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$231 Vol.
1%
13°C
$1,951 Vol.
7%
14°C
$1,451 Vol.
22%
15°C
$618 Vol.
44%
16°C
$1,002 Vol.
25%
17°C
$429 Vol.
4%
18°C
$509 Vol.
2%
19°C
$269 Vol.
1%
20°C or higher
$297 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a daily maximum of 14–16°C in Moscow on September 6, 2026, under cloudy, rainy conditions that suppress temperatures below the long-term average high of ~18°C.** Multiple numerical weather models and official outlooks, including those from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles such as GFS, show persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and westerly flow limiting daytime heating. Hourly profiles indicate peaks near 15–16°C in the afternoon before cooling overnight.
This range aligns directly with current market-implied probabilities, where 15°C leads at 44%, followed by 16°C at 25% and 14°C at 22%. Recent model runs have shown little change over the past 24–48 hours, reinforcing trader confidence in modest warming rather than the clearer, warmer conditions sometimes seen in early September. Historical analogs for similar late-summer setups with Atlantic moisture and zonal flow support maxima clustered in the mid-teens Celsius, with limited upside risk unless a forecast shift brings stronger ridging. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles, which could refine the exact peak if precipitation timing or cloud breaks evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$7,556End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus points to a daily maximum of 14–16°C in Moscow on September 6, 2026, under cloudy, rainy conditions that suppress temperatures below the long-term average high of ~18°C.** Multiple numerical weather models and official outlooks, including those from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles such as GFS, show persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and westerly flow limiting daytime heating. Hourly profiles indicate peaks near 15–16°C in the afternoon before cooling overnight.
This range aligns directly with current market-implied probabilities, where 15°C leads at 44%, followed by 16°C at 25% and 14°C at 22%. Recent model runs have shown little change over the past 24–48 hours, reinforcing trader confidence in modest warming rather than the clearer, warmer conditions sometimes seen in early September. Historical analogs for similar late-summer setups with Atlantic moisture and zonal flow support maxima clustered in the mid-teens Celsius, with limited upside risk unless a forecast shift brings stronger ridging. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles, which could refine the exact peak if precipitation timing or cloud breaks evolve.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$7,556End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus points to a daily maximum of 14–16°C in Moscow on September 6, 2026, under cloudy, rainy conditions that suppress temperatures below the long-term average high of ~18°C.** Multiple numerical weather models and official outlooks, including those from Russia’s Hydrometeorological Center and global ensembles such as GFS, show persistent cloud cover, scattered showers, and westerly flow limiting daytime heating. Hourly profiles indicate peaks near 15–16°C in the afternoon before cooling overnight. This range aligns directly with current market-implied probabilities, where 15°C leads at 44%, followed by 16°C at 25% and 14°C at 22%. Recent model runs have shown little change over the past 24–48 hours, reinforcing trader confidence in modest warming rather than the clearer, warmer conditions sometimes seen in early September. Historical analogs for similar late-summer setups with Atlantic moisture and zonal flow support maxima clustered in the mid-teens Celsius, with limited upside risk unless a forecast shift brings stronger ridging. Key upcoming updates include the next 00Z and 12Z model cycles, which could refine the exact peak if precipitation timing or cloud breaks evolve.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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