Clear skies, light south-easterly winds, and typical spring radiative cooling under high pressure have driven Cape Town’s minimum temperature toward 10°C on September 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models, including GFS guidance and local observations, converge on overnight lows near this threshold after daytime highs reached the low 20s°C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when minima average around 10–12°C. Official monitoring from the South African Weather Service and nearby stations reinforces this consensus. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or a late wind shift that limits nocturnal cooling, though current conditions and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedLowest temperature in Cape Town on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Cape Town on September 5?
10°C 99.4%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
1%
10°C
99%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C or higher
<1%
10°C 99.4%
9°C or below <1%
11°C <1%
12°C <1%
NEW
NEW
Sep 5, 2026
9°C or below
$155 Vol.
1%
10°C
$547 Vol.
99%
11°C
$227 Vol.
<1%
12°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
13°C
$217 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$200 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$66 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
17°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$35 Vol.
<1%
19°C or higher
$37 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies, light south-easterly winds, and typical spring radiative cooling under high pressure have driven Cape Town’s minimum temperature toward 10°C on September 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models, including GFS guidance and local observations, converge on overnight lows near this threshold after daytime highs reached the low 20s°C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when minima average around 10–12°C. Official monitoring from the South African Weather Service and nearby stations reinforces this consensus. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or a late wind shift that limits nocturnal cooling, though current conditions and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Volume
$1,777End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Clear skies, light south-easterly winds, and typical spring radiative cooling under high pressure have driven Cape Town’s minimum temperature toward 10°C on September 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models, including GFS guidance and local observations, converge on overnight lows near this threshold after daytime highs reached the low 20s°C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when minima average around 10–12°C. Official monitoring from the South African Weather Service and nearby stations reinforces this consensus. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or a late wind shift that limits nocturnal cooling, though current conditions and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,777End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Clear skies, light south-easterly winds, and typical spring radiative cooling under high pressure have driven Cape Town’s minimum temperature toward 10°C on September 5, 2026, producing the overwhelming 99.5% market-implied probability for that exact outcome. Multiple forecast models, including GFS guidance and local observations, converge on overnight lows near this threshold after daytime highs reached the low 20s°C, consistent with seasonal norms for early September when minima average around 10–12°C. Official monitoring from the South African Weather Service and nearby stations reinforces this consensus. A realistic challenge would require unexpected persistent cloud cover or a late wind shift that limits nocturnal cooling, though current conditions and model agreement make such deviations improbable before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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