Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran's July strikes on vessels and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade reinstatement, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with live monitors reporting only about 15 transits daily—roughly 25% of the normal 60-ship average—and cumulative weekly volumes likely falling well below historical norms. This environment creates tight market-implied odds across bins because traders price in substantial uncertainty around near-term de-escalation or further escalation ahead of the July 27 week. Recent three-day totals as low as 73 vessels underscore volatility tied to military actions and closure declarations, while any rapid shift in conflict dynamics or safe-passage assurances could swing realized volumes materially higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHow many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 27?
75-99 44%
<25 43%
50-74 43%
25-49 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
<25
43%
25-49
43%
50-74
43%
75-99
44%
100+
42%
75-99 44%
<25 43%
50-74 43%
25-49 43%
NEW
NEW
Aug 2, 2026
<25
$0 Vol.
43%
25-49
$0 Vol.
43%
50-74
$0 Vol.
43%
75-99
$0 Vol.
44%
100+
$0 Vol.
42%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran's July strikes on vessels and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade reinstatement, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with live monitors reporting only about 15 transits daily—roughly 25% of the normal 60-ship average—and cumulative weekly volumes likely falling well below historical norms. This environment creates tight market-implied odds across bins because traders price in substantial uncertainty around near-term de-escalation or further escalation ahead of the July 27 week. Recent three-day totals as low as 73 vessels underscore volatility tied to military actions and closure declarations, while any rapid shift in conflict dynamics or safe-passage assurances could swing realized volumes materially higher or lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Market Opened: Jul 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran's July strikes on vessels and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade reinstatement, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with live monitors reporting only about 15 transits daily—roughly 25% of the normal 60-ship average—and cumulative weekly volumes likely falling well below historical norms. This environment creates tight market-implied odds across bins because traders price in substantial uncertainty around near-term de-escalation or further escalation ahead of the July 27 week. Recent three-day totals as low as 73 vessels underscore volatility tied to military actions and closure declarations, while any rapid shift in conflict dynamics or safe-passage assurances could swing realized volumes materially higher or lower.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from July 27, 2026, through August 2, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volume
$0End Date
Aug 2, 2026Market Opened
Jul 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran, including Iran's July strikes on vessels and the subsequent U.S. naval blockade reinstatement, have kept Strait of Hormuz traffic severely restricted, with live monitors reporting only about 15 transits daily—roughly 25% of the normal 60-ship average—and cumulative weekly volumes likely falling well below historical norms. This environment creates tight market-implied odds across bins because traders price in substantial uncertainty around near-term de-escalation or further escalation ahead of the July 27 week. Recent three-day totals as low as 73 vessels underscore volatility tied to military actions and closure declarations, while any rapid shift in conflict dynamics or safe-passage assurances could swing realized volumes materially higher or lower.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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