Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on August 16, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a highest temperature near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market’s closely matched leading outcomes at 35.5% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh precipitation timing against typical mid-August averages of 30–32°C highs. High humidity and urban heat island effects amplify perceived warmth, while any earlier clearing or reduced shower coverage could push readings to 30°C or slightly above; conversely, persistent cloud cover or heavier rain favors the lower bin. Updated JMA briefings and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 16?
29°C 36%
30°C 31%
28°C 14%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
14%
29°C
36%
30°C
31%
31°C
12%
32°C
5%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 36%
30°C 31%
28°C 14%
31°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$218 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$92 Vol.
1%
26°C
$28 Vol.
1%
27°C
$500 Vol.
4%
28°C
$99 Vol.
14%
29°C
$977 Vol.
36%
30°C
$95 Vol.
31%
31°C
$125 Vol.
12%
32°C
$36 Vol.
5%
33°C
$98 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$32 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on August 16, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a highest temperature near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market’s closely matched leading outcomes at 35.5% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh precipitation timing against typical mid-August averages of 30–32°C highs. High humidity and urban heat island effects amplify perceived warmth, while any earlier clearing or reduced shower coverage could push readings to 30°C or slightly above; conversely, persistent cloud cover or heavier rain favors the lower bin. Updated JMA briefings and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key resolution data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$2,300End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on August 16, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a highest temperature near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market’s closely matched leading outcomes at 35.5% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh precipitation timing against typical mid-August averages of 30–32°C highs. High humidity and urban heat island effects amplify perceived warmth, while any earlier clearing or reduced shower coverage could push readings to 30°C or slightly above; conversely, persistent cloud cover or heavier rain favors the lower bin. Updated JMA briefings and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key resolution data.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTT.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$2,300End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/jp/tokyo/RJTTResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent Japan Meteorological Agency guidance and ensemble model consensus indicate mostly cloudy skies with frequent scattered showers for Tokyo on August 16, limiting daytime solar heating and supporting a highest temperature near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market’s closely matched leading outcomes at 35.5% and 31.5% implied probability, respectively, as traders weigh precipitation timing against typical mid-August averages of 30–32°C highs. High humidity and urban heat island effects amplify perceived warmth, while any earlier clearing or reduced shower coverage could push readings to 30°C or slightly above; conversely, persistent cloud cover or heavier rain favors the lower bin. Updated JMA briefings and global model runs over the next 48 hours will provide the key resolution data.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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