Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a fifth 2026 European heat wave will push Paris highs to 37–39°C on August 14, supported by a strong high-pressure ridge and above-average sea-surface temperatures across the North Atlantic. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 38–39°C outcomes, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values while historical August maxima rarely exceed 35°C absent such synoptic patterns. Key variables include exact timing of peak insolation, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture that could cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. Resolution depends on the highest 24-hour maximum reported by Météo-France.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Paris on August 14?
Highest temperature in Paris on August 14?
39°C 42%
38°C 29%
40°C 13%
37°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
10%
38°C
29%
39°C
42%
40°C
13%
41°C
4%
42°C
1%
43°C
1%
44°C
<1%
45°C or higher
<1%
39°C 42%
38°C 29%
40°C 13%
37°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
35°C or below
$12 Vol.
1%
36°C
$12 Vol.
1%
37°C
$0 Vol.
10%
38°C
$34 Vol.
29%
39°C
$52 Vol.
42%
40°C
$0 Vol.
13%
41°C
$0 Vol.
4%
42°C
$33 Vol.
1%
43°C
$12 Vol.
1%
44°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
45°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a fifth 2026 European heat wave will push Paris highs to 37–39°C on August 14, supported by a strong high-pressure ridge and above-average sea-surface temperatures across the North Atlantic. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 38–39°C outcomes, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values while historical August maxima rarely exceed 35°C absent such synoptic patterns. Key variables include exact timing of peak insolation, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture that could cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. Resolution depends on the highest 24-hour maximum reported by Météo-France.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a fifth 2026 European heat wave will push Paris highs to 37–39°C on August 14, supported by a strong high-pressure ridge and above-average sea-surface temperatures across the North Atlantic. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 38–39°C outcomes, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values while historical August maxima rarely exceed 35°C absent such synoptic patterns. Key variables include exact timing of peak insolation, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture that could cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. Resolution depends on the highest 24-hour maximum reported by Météo-France.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$178End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from Météo-France and European models indicate a fifth 2026 European heat wave will push Paris highs to 37–39°C on August 14, supported by a strong high-pressure ridge and above-average sea-surface temperatures across the North Atlantic. This aligns with trader consensus favoring 38–39°C outcomes, as ensemble guidance shows limited spread around these values while historical August maxima rarely exceed 35°C absent such synoptic patterns. Key variables include exact timing of peak insolation, urban heat-island effects at official stations, and any last-minute model shifts in boundary-layer moisture that could cap or boost readings by 1–2°C. Resolution depends on the highest 24-hour maximum reported by Météo-France.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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