Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a likely daily maximum of 20–21°C in Helsinki on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow and minimal frontal activity. This keeps 21°C and 22°C as the leading market outcomes at 42% and 40.5% implied probability. Differentiation between these hinges on small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and any modest warm advection from the Baltic, which can shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows means near 19–20°C with occasional 22–23°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, but current guidance shows no strong signal for such warming. Traders are pricing the narrow spread between official agency runs and private models, with resolution depending on the highest verified reading at the Helsinki-Vantaa station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on August 14?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on August 14?
21°C 45%
22°C 43%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
18°C or below
3%
19°C
6%
20°C
12%
21°C
45%
22°C
43%
23°C
11%
24°C
6%
25°C
3%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
21°C 45%
22°C 43%
20°C 12%
23°C 11%
NEW
NEW
Aug 14, 2026
18°C or below
$7 Vol.
3%
19°C
$0 Vol.
6%
20°C
$0 Vol.
12%
21°C
$0 Vol.
45%
22°C
$14 Vol.
43%
23°C
$0 Vol.
11%
24°C
$10 Vol.
6%
25°C
$15 Vol.
3%
26°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
27°C
$12 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$12 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a likely daily maximum of 20–21°C in Helsinki on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow and minimal frontal activity. This keeps 21°C and 22°C as the leading market outcomes at 42% and 40.5% implied probability. Differentiation between these hinges on small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and any modest warm advection from the Baltic, which can shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows means near 19–20°C with occasional 22–23°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, but current guidance shows no strong signal for such warming. Traders are pricing the narrow spread between official agency runs and private models, with resolution depending on the highest verified reading at the Helsinki-Vantaa station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ET
Volume
$82End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a likely daily maximum of 20–21°C in Helsinki on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow and minimal frontal activity. This keeps 21°C and 22°C as the leading market outcomes at 42% and 40.5% implied probability. Differentiation between these hinges on small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and any modest warm advection from the Baltic, which can shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows means near 19–20°C with occasional 22–23°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, but current guidance shows no strong signal for such warming. Traders are pricing the narrow spread between official agency runs and private models, with resolution depending on the highest verified reading at the Helsinki-Vantaa station.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$82End Date
Aug 14, 2026Market Opened
Aug 12, 2026, 1:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fi/vantaa/EFHKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent ensemble forecasts from major models indicate a likely daily maximum of 20–21°C in Helsinki on August 14 under partly cloudy conditions with light southerly flow and minimal frontal activity. This keeps 21°C and 22°C as the leading market outcomes at 42% and 40.5% implied probability. Differentiation between these hinges on small uncertainties in boundary-layer mixing, exact cloud timing, and any modest warm advection from the Baltic, which can shift the peak by 1°C. Historical August climatology shows means near 19–20°C with occasional 22–23°C spikes under high-pressure ridges, but current guidance shows no strong signal for such warming. Traders are pricing the narrow spread between official agency runs and private models, with resolution depending on the highest verified reading at the Helsinki-Vantaa station.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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