Traders assign near-equal weight to 34°C and 35°C outcomes because short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration cluster around these values for August 16 amid a warm, humid maritime air mass typical of peak summer. Variable afternoon convective showers and cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty: stronger or earlier storms could cap the daily maximum near 34°C, while clearer intervals or delayed convection would allow greater surface heating toward 35°C. Historical August extremes in Taipei frequently reach the mid-30s when subtropical ridging strengthens, yet model spread on boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze timing keeps probabilities balanced and below 35% for any single bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
Highest temperature in Taipei on August 16?
35°C 32%
34°C 30%
36°C 21%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
3%
33°C
7%
34°C
30%
35°C
32%
36°C
21%
37°C
4%
38°C
1%
39°C or higher
1%
35°C 32%
34°C 30%
36°C 21%
33°C 7%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
29°C or below
$362 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$224 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$263 Vol.
1%
32°C
$495 Vol.
3%
33°C
$247 Vol.
7%
34°C
$1,247 Vol.
30%
35°C
$238 Vol.
32%
36°C
$779 Vol.
21%
37°C
$208 Vol.
4%
38°C
$289 Vol.
1%
39°C or higher
$217 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-equal weight to 34°C and 35°C outcomes because short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration cluster around these values for August 16 amid a warm, humid maritime air mass typical of peak summer. Variable afternoon convective showers and cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty: stronger or earlier storms could cap the daily maximum near 34°C, while clearer intervals or delayed convection would allow greater surface heating toward 35°C. Historical August extremes in Taipei frequently reach the mid-30s when subtropical ridging strengthens, yet model spread on boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze timing keeps probabilities balanced and below 35% for any single bin.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$4,570End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders assign near-equal weight to 34°C and 35°C outcomes because short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration cluster around these values for August 16 amid a warm, humid maritime air mass typical of peak summer. Variable afternoon convective showers and cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty: stronger or earlier storms could cap the daily maximum near 34°C, while clearer intervals or delayed convection would allow greater surface heating toward 35°C. Historical August extremes in Taipei frequently reach the mid-30s when subtropical ridging strengthens, yet model spread on boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze timing keeps probabilities balanced and below 35% for any single bin.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Taipei Songshan Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Taipei Songshan Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$4,570End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tw/taipei/RCSSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign near-equal weight to 34°C and 35°C outcomes because short-range ensemble forecasts from agencies including Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration cluster around these values for August 16 amid a warm, humid maritime air mass typical of peak summer. Variable afternoon convective showers and cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty: stronger or earlier storms could cap the daily maximum near 34°C, while clearer intervals or delayed convection would allow greater surface heating toward 35°C. Historical August extremes in Taipei frequently reach the mid-30s when subtropical ridging strengthens, yet model spread on boundary-layer moisture and sea-breeze timing keeps probabilities balanced and below 35% for any single bin.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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