PAGASA's latest outlooks for Metro Manila show the southwest monsoon (habagat) sustaining cloudy skies and scattered showers through mid-August, moderating peak heating and anchoring trader focus on 29–30°C highs for August 16. Official guidance lists a 29°C maximum at the primary station alongside nearby model runs reaching 30–33°C, with the narrow spread reflecting uncertainty in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, and urban heat retention. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet persistent monsoon moisture typically suppresses afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C compared to clearer periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will likely clarify whether breaks in cloud cover allow brief spikes toward 31°C or keep readings capped near the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 40%
29°C 34%
31°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
14%
28°C
15%
29°C
30%
30°C
33%
31°C
15%
32°C
10%
33°C
2%
34°C or higher
2%
30°C 40%
29°C 34%
31°C 15%
28°C 15%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$216 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$35 Vol.
1%
26°C
$49 Vol.
3%
27°C
$46 Vol.
14%
28°C
$3 Vol.
15%
29°C
$7 Vol.
30%
30°C
$8 Vol.
33%
31°C
$0 Vol.
15%
32°C
$1 Vol.
10%
33°C
$16 Vol.
2%
34°C or higher
$5 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest outlooks for Metro Manila show the southwest monsoon (habagat) sustaining cloudy skies and scattered showers through mid-August, moderating peak heating and anchoring trader focus on 29–30°C highs for August 16. Official guidance lists a 29°C maximum at the primary station alongside nearby model runs reaching 30–33°C, with the narrow spread reflecting uncertainty in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, and urban heat retention. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet persistent monsoon moisture typically suppresses afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C compared to clearer periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will likely clarify whether breaks in cloud cover allow brief spikes toward 31°C or keep readings capped near the current consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$374End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.PAGASA's latest outlooks for Metro Manila show the southwest monsoon (habagat) sustaining cloudy skies and scattered showers through mid-August, moderating peak heating and anchoring trader focus on 29–30°C highs for August 16. Official guidance lists a 29°C maximum at the primary station alongside nearby model runs reaching 30–33°C, with the narrow spread reflecting uncertainty in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, and urban heat retention. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet persistent monsoon moisture typically suppresses afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C compared to clearer periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will likely clarify whether breaks in cloud cover allow brief spikes toward 31°C or keep readings capped near the current consensus.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$374End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...PAGASA's latest outlooks for Metro Manila show the southwest monsoon (habagat) sustaining cloudy skies and scattered showers through mid-August, moderating peak heating and anchoring trader focus on 29–30°C highs for August 16. Official guidance lists a 29°C maximum at the primary station alongside nearby model runs reaching 30–33°C, with the narrow spread reflecting uncertainty in cloud timing, rainfall intensity, and urban heat retention. Historical August averages near 31°C provide context, yet persistent monsoon moisture typically suppresses afternoon temperatures by 1–2°C compared to clearer periods. Updated model runs and the next PAGASA briefing will likely clarify whether breaks in cloud cover allow brief spikes toward 31°C or keep readings capped near the current consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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