Recent model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak of 32–34°C on August 16 in Shenzhen as the most probable outcome, aligning with trader consensus around those levels. Subtropical summer patterns, including lingering monsoon moisture and scattered thunderstorm activity, introduce variability: afternoon convection and cloud cover can cap daytime maxima, while clearer spells allow brief spikes toward 34°C under typical August humidity near 80%. Historical climatology shows mid-August highs averaging near 32°C, with extremes above 35°C uncommon without strong high-pressure dominance. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and moisture fields become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on August 16?
33°C 33%
32°C 26%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
4%
31°C
9%
32°C
26%
33°C
33%
34°C
22%
35°C
12%
36°C
1%
37°C or higher
1%
33°C 33%
32°C 26%
34°C 22%
35°C 12%
NEW
NEW
Aug 16, 2026
27°C or below
$201 Vol.
<1%
28°C
$45 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$156 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$9 Vol.
4%
31°C
$8 Vol.
9%
32°C
$0 Vol.
26%
33°C
$40 Vol.
33%
34°C
$41 Vol.
22%
35°C
$3 Vol.
12%
36°C
$107 Vol.
1%
37°C or higher
$12 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak of 32–34°C on August 16 in Shenzhen as the most probable outcome, aligning with trader consensus around those levels. Subtropical summer patterns, including lingering monsoon moisture and scattered thunderstorm activity, introduce variability: afternoon convection and cloud cover can cap daytime maxima, while clearer spells allow brief spikes toward 34°C under typical August humidity near 80%. Historical climatology shows mid-August highs averaging near 32°C, with extremes above 35°C uncommon without strong high-pressure dominance. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and moisture fields become clearer.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Volume
$623End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak of 32–34°C on August 16 in Shenzhen as the most probable outcome, aligning with trader consensus around those levels. Subtropical summer patterns, including lingering monsoon moisture and scattered thunderstorm activity, introduce variability: afternoon convection and cloud cover can cap daytime maxima, while clearer spells allow brief spikes toward 34°C under typical August humidity near 80%. Historical climatology shows mid-August highs averaging near 32°C, with extremes above 35°C uncommon without strong high-pressure dominance. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and moisture fields become clearer.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$623End Date
Aug 16, 2026Market Opened
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model runs from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration point to a peak of 32–34°C on August 16 in Shenzhen as the most probable outcome, aligning with trader consensus around those levels. Subtropical summer patterns, including lingering monsoon moisture and scattered thunderstorm activity, introduce variability: afternoon convection and cloud cover can cap daytime maxima, while clearer spells allow brief spikes toward 34°C under typical August humidity near 80%. Historical climatology shows mid-August highs averaging near 32°C, with extremes above 35°C uncommon without strong high-pressure dominance. Updated short-range forecasts over the next 24–48 hours will likely refine these probabilities as steering patterns and moisture fields become clearer.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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