Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF points to a daytime maximum near 31°C in Tel Aviv on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–15 km/h, and dew points around 20–22°C limiting further warming. Coastal sea-breeze effects typical for the region in early September help moderate peaks, while stable high pressure suppresses cloud build-up or precipitation. Minor model spread in afternoon timing and exact wind strength creates the tight market split between 31°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded value at the primary station. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the final assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 6?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on September 6?
31°C 53%
32°C 47%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
NEW
$14,607 Vol.
NEW
$14,607 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
53%
32°C
47%
33°C
1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C
<1%
38°C or higher
<1%
31°C 53%
32°C 47%
33°C <1%
34°C <1%
NEW
$14,607 Vol.
NEW
$14,607 Vol.
Sep 6, 2026
28°C or below
$245 Vol.
<1%
29°C
$382 Vol.
<1%
30°C
$1,273 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$4,094 Vol.
53%
32°C
$3,831 Vol.
47%
33°C
$1,014 Vol.
1%
34°C
$1,312 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$698 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$529 Vol.
<1%
37°C
$1,095 Vol.
<1%
38°C or higher
$135 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF points to a daytime maximum near 31°C in Tel Aviv on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–15 km/h, and dew points around 20–22°C limiting further warming. Coastal sea-breeze effects typical for the region in early September help moderate peaks, while stable high pressure suppresses cloud build-up or precipitation. Minor model spread in afternoon timing and exact wind strength creates the tight market split between 31°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded value at the primary station. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the final assessment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$14,607End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF points to a daytime maximum near 31°C in Tel Aviv on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–15 km/h, and dew points around 20–22°C limiting further warming. Coastal sea-breeze effects typical for the region in early September help moderate peaks, while stable high pressure suppresses cloud build-up or precipitation. Minor model spread in afternoon timing and exact wind strength creates the tight market split between 31°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded value at the primary station. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the final assessment.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ben Gurion International Airport in degrees Celsius on 6 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$14,607End Date
Sep 6, 2026Market Opened
Sep 4, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast model consensus from sources including the Israel Meteorological Service and global ensembles like GFS and ECMWF points to a daytime maximum near 31°C in Tel Aviv on September 6, with partly cloudy skies, westerly winds of 10–15 km/h, and dew points around 20–22°C limiting further warming. Coastal sea-breeze effects typical for the region in early September help moderate peaks, while stable high pressure suppresses cloud build-up or precipitation. Minor model spread in afternoon timing and exact wind strength creates the tight market split between 31°C and 32°C implied probabilities, with resolution hinging on the official highest recorded value at the primary station. Updated model runs and local observations through the evening will refine the final assessment.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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