**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 26°C high for Panama City on August 17, reflecting peak wet-season convective activity and persistent cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).** These conditions sharply reduce incoming solar radiation during peak heating hours, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of 29–30°C. Official observations and model consensus confirm frequent afternoon thunderstorms and extensive cloud decks that suppress temperature rises, consistent with the market-implied probability exceeding 98%. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this outcome include a temporary break in the ITCZ-driven convection or unexpectedly reduced cloud cover, allowing greater insolation and a potential shift toward 27°C or higher; however, current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms make such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Panama City on August 17?
Highest temperature in Panama City on August 17?
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$25,122 Vol.
$25,122 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
No
25°C
No
26°C
Yes
27°C
No
28°C
No
29°C
No
30°C
No
31°C
No
32°C
No
33°C
No
34°C or higher
No
26°C 100.0%
24°C or below <1%
25°C <1%
27°C <1%
$25,122 Vol.
$25,122 Vol.
Aug 17, 2026
24°C or below
$163 Vol.
No
25°C
$163 Vol.
No
26°C
$5,746 Vol.
Yes
27°C
$3,707 Vol.
No
28°C
$2,609 Vol.
No
29°C
$2,201 Vol.
No
30°C
$6,549 Vol.
No
31°C
$1,443 Vol.
No
32°C
$1,801 Vol.
No
33°C
$281 Vol.
No
34°C or higher
$459 Vol.
No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 26°C high for Panama City on August 17, reflecting peak wet-season convective activity and persistent cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).** These conditions sharply reduce incoming solar radiation during peak heating hours, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of 29–30°C. Official observations and model consensus confirm frequent afternoon thunderstorms and extensive cloud decks that suppress temperature rises, consistent with the market-implied probability exceeding 98%.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this outcome include a temporary break in the ITCZ-driven convection or unexpectedly reduced cloud cover, allowing greater insolation and a potential shift toward 27°C or higher; however, current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 15, 2026, 9:57 PM ET
Volume
$25,122End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 26°C high for Panama City on August 17, reflecting peak wet-season convective activity and persistent cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).** These conditions sharply reduce incoming solar radiation during peak heating hours, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of 29–30°C. Official observations and model consensus confirm frequent afternoon thunderstorms and extensive cloud decks that suppress temperature rises, consistent with the market-implied probability exceeding 98%.
Realistic scenarios that could challenge this outcome include a temporary break in the ITCZ-driven convection or unexpectedly reduced cloud cover, allowing greater insolation and a potential shift toward 27°C or higher; however, current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms make such deviations unlikely.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Marcos A. Gelabert Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$25,122End Date
Aug 17, 2026Market Opened
Aug 15, 2026, 9:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pa/panama-city/MPMGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
**Trader consensus has coalesced around a 26°C high for Panama City on August 17, reflecting peak wet-season convective activity and persistent cloud cover associated with the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ).** These conditions sharply reduce incoming solar radiation during peak heating hours, capping daytime maxima below the long-term August climatological average of 29–30°C. Official observations and model consensus confirm frequent afternoon thunderstorms and extensive cloud decks that suppress temperature rises, consistent with the market-implied probability exceeding 98%. Realistic scenarios that could challenge this outcome include a temporary break in the ITCZ-driven convection or unexpectedly reduced cloud cover, allowing greater insolation and a potential shift toward 27°C or higher; however, current atmospheric patterns and seasonal norms make such deviations unlikely.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions