Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and regional models indicates a humid southwest flow supporting a high near 86–87°F in New York City on September 1, with showers likely through the morning and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. This setup explains the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, as traders weigh how cloud cover and precipitation timing could cap the peak versus allowing brief clearing to reach the upper end. Recent model runs show limited spread in the 80–90°F envelope, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, while the market's lower-probability tails reflect residual uncertainty ahead of the final 48-hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in NYC on September 1?
Highest temperature in NYC on September 1?
86-87°F 33%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 18%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
1%
74-75°F
1%
76-77°F
4%
78-79°F
3%
80-81°F
18%
82-83°F
7%
84-85°F
25%
86-87°F
33%
88-89°F
15%
90-91°F
10%
92°F or higher
2%
86-87°F 33%
84-85°F 25%
80-81°F 18%
88-89°F 15%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
73°F or below
$0 Vol.
1%
74-75°F
$5 Vol.
1%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
4%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
3%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
18%
82-83°F
$0 Vol.
7%
84-85°F
$14 Vol.
25%
86-87°F
$41 Vol.
33%
88-89°F
$0 Vol.
15%
90-91°F
$20 Vol.
10%
92°F or higher
$32 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and regional models indicates a humid southwest flow supporting a high near 86–87°F in New York City on September 1, with showers likely through the morning and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. This setup explains the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, as traders weigh how cloud cover and precipitation timing could cap the peak versus allowing brief clearing to reach the upper end. Recent model runs show limited spread in the 80–90°F envelope, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, while the market's lower-probability tails reflect residual uncertainty ahead of the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ET
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and regional models indicates a humid southwest flow supporting a high near 86–87°F in New York City on September 1, with showers likely through the morning and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. This setup explains the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, as traders weigh how cloud cover and precipitation timing could cap the peak versus allowing brief clearing to reach the upper end. Recent model runs show limited spread in the 80–90°F envelope, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, while the market's lower-probability tails reflect residual uncertainty ahead of the final 48-hour updates.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klga
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$113End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 3:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=klgaResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current forecast guidance from the National Weather Service and regional models indicates a humid southwest flow supporting a high near 86–87°F in New York City on September 1, with showers likely through the morning and a chance of thunderstorms in the afternoon. This setup explains the market's tight clustering around 84–87°F outcomes, as traders weigh how cloud cover and precipitation timing could cap the peak versus allowing brief clearing to reach the upper end. Recent model runs show limited spread in the 80–90°F envelope, consistent with late-summer climatology for the region, while the market's lower-probability tails reflect residual uncertainty ahead of the final 48-hour updates.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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