**Forecast consensus positions 23–24°C as the most likely outcomes for Munich’s September 1 high.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS-based guidance) converge on a daily maximum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F) under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22.2°C. **Key drivers include a building high-pressure ridge and zonal flow across central Europe.** This pattern favors dry, stable conditions with limited diurnal warming or cooling, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms rather than supporting excursions to 25°C or above. Recent model runs from late August show minimal spread, with no signals of stronger southerly advection or clear-sky amplification that would push readings higher. **Market-implied probabilities reflect this tight clustering around the mean.** The heavy weighting on 23°C (28%) and 24°C (44.5%) captures the current ensemble agreement, while low odds for 25°C+ or sub-22°C outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing on the final day. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Munich on September 1?
Highest temperature in Munich on September 1?
24°C 45%
23°C 29%
25°C 16%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
2%
21°C
3%
22°C
8%
23°C
29%
24°C
45%
25°C
16%
26°C
2%
27°C
<1%
28°C or higher
<1%
24°C 45%
23°C 29%
25°C 16%
22°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
18°C or below
$0 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$45 Vol.
2%
21°C
$0 Vol.
3%
22°C
$131 Vol.
8%
23°C
$554 Vol.
29%
24°C
$728 Vol.
45%
25°C
$102 Vol.
16%
26°C
$30 Vol.
2%
27°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
28°C or higher
$0 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus positions 23–24°C as the most likely outcomes for Munich’s September 1 high.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS-based guidance) converge on a daily maximum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F) under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22.2°C.
**Key drivers include a building high-pressure ridge and zonal flow across central Europe.** This pattern favors dry, stable conditions with limited diurnal warming or cooling, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms rather than supporting excursions to 25°C or above. Recent model runs from late August show minimal spread, with no signals of stronger southerly advection or clear-sky amplification that would push readings higher.
**Market-implied probabilities reflect this tight clustering around the mean.** The heavy weighting on 23°C (28%) and 24°C (44.5%) captures the current ensemble agreement, while low odds for 25°C+ or sub-22°C outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing on the final day. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Volume
$1,590End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast consensus positions 23–24°C as the most likely outcomes for Munich’s September 1 high.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS-based guidance) converge on a daily maximum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F) under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22.2°C.
**Key drivers include a building high-pressure ridge and zonal flow across central Europe.** This pattern favors dry, stable conditions with limited diurnal warming or cooling, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms rather than supporting excursions to 25°C or above. Recent model runs from late August show minimal spread, with no signals of stronger southerly advection or clear-sky amplification that would push readings higher.
**Market-implied probabilities reflect this tight clustering around the mean.** The heavy weighting on 23°C (28%) and 24°C (44.5%) captures the current ensemble agreement, while low odds for 25°C+ or sub-22°C outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing on the final day. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddm
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$1,590End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eddmResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast consensus positions 23–24°C as the most likely outcomes for Munich’s September 1 high.** Multiple short-range models (including GFS-based guidance) converge on a daily maximum of 22–24°C (roughly 72–75°F) under partly cloudy skies and light westerly winds, aligning closely with the 1991–2020 climatological average high of 22.2°C. **Key drivers include a building high-pressure ridge and zonal flow across central Europe.** This pattern favors dry, stable conditions with limited diurnal warming or cooling, keeping temperatures near seasonal norms rather than supporting excursions to 25°C or above. Recent model runs from late August show minimal spread, with no signals of stronger southerly advection or clear-sky amplification that would push readings higher. **Market-implied probabilities reflect this tight clustering around the mean.** The heavy weighting on 23°C (28%) and 24°C (44.5%) captures the current ensemble agreement, while low odds for 25°C+ or sub-22°C outcomes acknowledge residual uncertainty in exact cloud cover and boundary-layer mixing on the final day. Updated forecasts over the next 48 hours will be the primary catalyst for any shifts in trader positioning.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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