Recent forecasts from GFS-based models and official sources indicate Moscow's September 14 daytime maximum will likely reach 18–19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly to southwesterly winds and stable high pressure near 750 mmHg. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping the range narrow and explaining the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes. Minor model variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing create the small edge for 19°C, with limited upside potential beyond 20°C absent unexpected clearing. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Moscow on September 14?
Highest temperature in Moscow on September 14?
19°C 46%
18°C 45%
20°C 7%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
<1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
45%
19°C
46%
20°C
7%
21°C
2%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
19°C 46%
18°C 45%
20°C 7%
17°C 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$267 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$231 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$201 Vol.
<1%
16°C
$106 Vol.
2%
17°C
$326 Vol.
5%
18°C
$510 Vol.
45%
19°C
$368 Vol.
46%
20°C
$439 Vol.
7%
21°C
$359 Vol.
2%
22°C
$247 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$294 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS-based models and official sources indicate Moscow's September 14 daytime maximum will likely reach 18–19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly to southwesterly winds and stable high pressure near 750 mmHg. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping the range narrow and explaining the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes. Minor model variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing create the small edge for 19°C, with limited upside potential beyond 20°C absent unexpected clearing. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$3,348End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from GFS-based models and official sources indicate Moscow's September 14 daytime maximum will likely reach 18–19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly to southwesterly winds and stable high pressure near 750 mmHg. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping the range narrow and explaining the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes. Minor model variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing create the small edge for 19°C, with limited upside potential beyond 20°C absent unexpected clearing. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Vnukovo International Airport in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=UUWW
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$3,348End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from GFS-based models and official sources indicate Moscow's September 14 daytime maximum will likely reach 18–19°C under partly to mostly cloudy skies with light westerly to southwesterly winds and stable high pressure near 750 mmHg. These conditions limit strong daytime heating while preventing significant cooling, keeping the range narrow and explaining the near-even market split between the two leading outcomes. Minor model variations in cloud timing and boundary-layer mixing create the small edge for 19°C, with limited upside potential beyond 20°C absent unexpected clearing. Updated runs overnight will refine the exact peak before resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions