Traders have converged on 38°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on July 31, 2026, reflecting the latest official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models that project a daytime maximum near this threshold under stable high-pressure conditions. Historical July averages hover around 32–33°C, but persistent heatwave patterns and minimal cloud cover have elevated expectations, with current observations and model runs showing limited variability in peak readings at representative urban stations. This near-certainty stems from consistent numerical guidance and real-time data, though minor deviations remain possible if localized wind shifts or measurement timing at the primary station alter the recorded high by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
Highest temperature in Madrid on July 31?
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$119,982 Vol.
$119,982 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
No
36°C
No
37°C
No
38°C
Yes
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
No
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C or higher
No
38°C 100.0%
35°C or below <1%
36°C <1%
37°C <1%
$119,982 Vol.
$119,982 Vol.
Jul 31, 2026
35°C or below
$4,364 Vol.
No
36°C
$10,394 Vol.
No
37°C
$26,892 Vol.
No
38°C
$28,823 Vol.
Yes
39°C
$18,330 Vol.
No
40°C
$12,349 Vol.
No
41°C
$6,862 Vol.
No
42°C
$6,063 Vol.
No
43°C
$2,141 Vol.
No
44°C
$1,881 Vol.
No
45°C or higher
$1,885 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 38°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on July 31, 2026, reflecting the latest official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models that project a daytime maximum near this threshold under stable high-pressure conditions. Historical July averages hover around 32–33°C, but persistent heatwave patterns and minimal cloud cover have elevated expectations, with current observations and model runs showing limited variability in peak readings at representative urban stations. This near-certainty stems from consistent numerical guidance and real-time data, though minor deviations remain possible if localized wind shifts or measurement timing at the primary station alter the recorded high by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ET
Volume
$119,982End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have converged on 38°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on July 31, 2026, reflecting the latest official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models that project a daytime maximum near this threshold under stable high-pressure conditions. Historical July averages hover around 32–33°C, but persistent heatwave patterns and minimal cloud cover have elevated expectations, with current observations and model runs showing limited variability in peak readings at representative urban stations. This near-certainty stems from consistent numerical guidance and real-time data, though minor deviations remain possible if localized wind shifts or measurement timing at the primary station alter the recorded high by 1°C.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$119,982End Date
Jul 31, 2026Market Opened
Jul 29, 2026, 1:04 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Traders have converged on 38°C as the implied outcome for Madrid’s highest temperature on July 31, 2026, reflecting the latest official forecasts from Spain’s AEMET and supporting European models that project a daytime maximum near this threshold under stable high-pressure conditions. Historical July averages hover around 32–33°C, but persistent heatwave patterns and minimal cloud cover have elevated expectations, with current observations and model runs showing limited variability in peak readings at representative urban stations. This near-certainty stems from consistent numerical guidance and real-time data, though minor deviations remain possible if localized wind shifts or measurement timing at the primary station alter the recorded high by 1°C.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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