Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather project Madrid’s August 1 high near 37–38°C under persistent high pressure and southerly advection of warm, dry air masses, with abundant sunshine and minimal cloud cover limiting cooling. These conditions align with seasonal baselines elevated by ongoing summer warmth, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could add 1–2°C locally. Trader consensus heavily favors 38°C (63.5% implied probability) because ensemble runs show limited upside potential for 39°C or higher without unexpected model shifts, while downside risk below 37°C remains low given stable atmospheric patterns. New observational data and updated short-range guidance expected later today will refine resolution around the 38–39°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
Highest temperature in Madrid on August 1?
38°C 61%
39°C 32%
40°C 3.9%
37°C 3%
$30,754 Vol.
$30,754 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
1%
37°C
3%
38°C
61%
39°C
32%
40°C
4%
41°C
<1%
42°C
<1%
43°C
<1%
44°C or higher
<1%
38°C 61%
39°C 32%
40°C 3.9%
37°C 3%
$30,754 Vol.
$30,754 Vol.
Aug 1, 2026
34°C or below
$494 Vol.
<1%
35°C
$1,207 Vol.
<1%
36°C
$530 Vol.
1%
37°C
$10,313 Vol.
3%
38°C
$6,162 Vol.
61%
39°C
$5,251 Vol.
32%
40°C
$3,966 Vol.
4%
41°C
$1,195 Vol.
<1%
42°C
$827 Vol.
<1%
43°C
$378 Vol.
<1%
44°C or higher
$430 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather project Madrid’s August 1 high near 37–38°C under persistent high pressure and southerly advection of warm, dry air masses, with abundant sunshine and minimal cloud cover limiting cooling. These conditions align with seasonal baselines elevated by ongoing summer warmth, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could add 1–2°C locally. Trader consensus heavily favors 38°C (63.5% implied probability) because ensemble runs show limited upside potential for 39°C or higher without unexpected model shifts, while downside risk below 37°C remains low given stable atmospheric patterns. New observational data and updated short-range guidance expected later today will refine resolution around the 38–39°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ET
Volume
$30,754End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather project Madrid’s August 1 high near 37–38°C under persistent high pressure and southerly advection of warm, dry air masses, with abundant sunshine and minimal cloud cover limiting cooling. These conditions align with seasonal baselines elevated by ongoing summer warmth, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could add 1–2°C locally. Trader consensus heavily favors 38°C (63.5% implied probability) because ensemble runs show limited upside potential for 39°C or higher without unexpected model shifts, while downside risk below 37°C remains low given stable atmospheric patterns. New observational data and updated short-range guidance expected later today will refine resolution around the 38–39°C threshold.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$30,754End Date
Aug 1, 2026Market Opened
Jul 30, 2026, 12:03 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from agencies including the Met Office and AccuWeather project Madrid’s August 1 high near 37–38°C under persistent high pressure and southerly advection of warm, dry air masses, with abundant sunshine and minimal cloud cover limiting cooling. These conditions align with seasonal baselines elevated by ongoing summer warmth, though urban heat island effects in central Madrid could add 1–2°C locally. Trader consensus heavily favors 38°C (63.5% implied probability) because ensemble runs show limited upside potential for 39°C or higher without unexpected model shifts, while downside risk below 37°C remains low given stable atmospheric patterns. New observational data and updated short-range guidance expected later today will refine resolution around the 38–39°C threshold.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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