Traders have heavily favored the 76-77°F bin (53% implied probability) for Los Angeles' August 4 high, reflecting a dominant marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific that suppresses daytime warming along the coast and at LAX. NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a stable air mass with minimal ridging, yielding highs several degrees below the seasonal 84°F average. Recent ensemble runs show little deviation, keeping 78-79°F a distant second (29%) while rendering 80°F+ outcomes unlikely absent rapid warming or offshore flow. This setup aligns with typical early-August coastal climatology, where fog and stratus limit solar heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Los Angeles on August 4?
Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 4?
76-77°F 53%
78-79°F 27%
74-75°F 10%
80-81°F 3.5%
$33,835 Vol.
$33,835 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
<1%
70-71°F
<1%
72-73°F
2%
74-75°F
10%
76-77°F
53%
78-79°F
27%
80-81°F
4%
82-83°F
<1%
84-85°F
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88°F or higher
<1%
76-77°F 53%
78-79°F 27%
74-75°F 10%
80-81°F 3.5%
$33,835 Vol.
$33,835 Vol.
Aug 4, 2026
69°F or below
$889 Vol.
<1%
70-71°F
$2,205 Vol.
<1%
72-73°F
$4,705 Vol.
2%
74-75°F
$7,805 Vol.
10%
76-77°F
$6,356 Vol.
53%
78-79°F
$5,751 Vol.
27%
80-81°F
$3,734 Vol.
4%
82-83°F
$961 Vol.
<1%
84-85°F
$996 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$217 Vol.
<1%
88°F or higher
$217 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have heavily favored the 76-77°F bin (53% implied probability) for Los Angeles' August 4 high, reflecting a dominant marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific that suppresses daytime warming along the coast and at LAX. NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a stable air mass with minimal ridging, yielding highs several degrees below the seasonal 84°F average. Recent ensemble runs show little deviation, keeping 78-79°F a distant second (29%) while rendering 80°F+ outcomes unlikely absent rapid warming or offshore flow. This setup aligns with typical early-August coastal climatology, where fog and stratus limit solar heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ET
Volume
$33,835End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Traders have heavily favored the 76-77°F bin (53% implied probability) for Los Angeles' August 4 high, reflecting a dominant marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific that suppresses daytime warming along the coast and at LAX. NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a stable air mass with minimal ridging, yielding highs several degrees below the seasonal 84°F average. Recent ensemble runs show little deviation, keeping 78-79°F a distant second (29%) while rendering 80°F+ outcomes unlikely absent rapid warming or offshore flow. This setup aligns with typical early-August coastal climatology, where fog and stratus limit solar heating.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 4 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$33,835End Date
Aug 4, 2026Market Opened
Aug 2, 2026, 9:05 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have heavily favored the 76-77°F bin (53% implied probability) for Los Angeles' August 4 high, reflecting a dominant marine layer and persistent onshore flow from the Pacific that suppresses daytime warming along the coast and at LAX. NOAA and NWS model consensus points to a stable air mass with minimal ridging, yielding highs several degrees below the seasonal 84°F average. Recent ensemble runs show little deviation, keeping 78-79°F a distant second (29%) while rendering 80°F+ outcomes unlikely absent rapid warming or offshore flow. This setup aligns with typical early-August coastal climatology, where fog and stratus limit solar heating.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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