Recent meteorological data and ensemble forecasts position 27°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on September 5, driven by persistent clear skies, northeasterly winds of 10-20 km/h, and dry conditions that limit daytime heating. Official model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF converge on afternoon maxima of 27-29°C, consistent with early-September climatology where highs typically reach 26-28°C under similar synoptic patterns. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 65.5% implied probability for 27°C and 36.5% for 26°C, incorporates ongoing observations showing current readings in the mid-20s°C with limited further warming potential before evening cooling. Minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure reinforce this range, though minor model spread could allow a late adjustment if winds weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
26°C 80%
27°C 17%
28°C 2.8%
29°C <1%
$13,905 Vol.
$13,905 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
65%
27°C
17%
28°C
3%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C or higher
<1%
26°C 80%
27°C 17%
28°C 2.8%
29°C <1%
$13,905 Vol.
$13,905 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
22°C or below
$862 Vol.
<1%
23°C
$515 Vol.
<1%
24°C
$310 Vol.
<1%
25°C
$930 Vol.
<1%
26°C
$4,202 Vol.
65%
27°C
$3,124 Vol.
17%
28°C
$1,305 Vol.
3%
29°C
$921 Vol.
1%
30°C
$561 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$766 Vol.
<1%
32°C or higher
$411 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological data and ensemble forecasts position 27°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on September 5, driven by persistent clear skies, northeasterly winds of 10-20 km/h, and dry conditions that limit daytime heating. Official model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF converge on afternoon maxima of 27-29°C, consistent with early-September climatology where highs typically reach 26-28°C under similar synoptic patterns. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 65.5% implied probability for 27°C and 36.5% for 26°C, incorporates ongoing observations showing current readings in the mid-20s°C with limited further warming potential before evening cooling. Minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure reinforce this range, though minor model spread could allow a late adjustment if winds weaken.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$13,905End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent meteorological data and ensemble forecasts position 27°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on September 5, driven by persistent clear skies, northeasterly winds of 10-20 km/h, and dry conditions that limit daytime heating. Official model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF converge on afternoon maxima of 27-29°C, consistent with early-September climatology where highs typically reach 26-28°C under similar synoptic patterns. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 65.5% implied probability for 27°C and 36.5% for 26°C, incorporates ongoing observations showing current readings in the mid-20s°C with limited further warming potential before evening cooling. Minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure reinforce this range, though minor model spread could allow a late adjustment if winds weaken.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$13,905End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent meteorological data and ensemble forecasts position 27°C as the leading outcome for Istanbul's highest temperature on September 5, driven by persistent clear skies, northeasterly winds of 10-20 km/h, and dry conditions that limit daytime heating. Official model runs from sources such as GFS and ECMWF converge on afternoon maxima of 27-29°C, consistent with early-September climatology where highs typically reach 26-28°C under similar synoptic patterns. Trader sentiment, reflected in the 65.5% implied probability for 27°C and 36.5% for 26°C, incorporates ongoing observations showing current readings in the mid-20s°C with limited further warming potential before evening cooling. Minimal precipitation risk and stable high pressure reinforce this range, though minor model spread could allow a late adjustment if winds weaken.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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