**Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and major European models place Helsinki’s expected daily maximum for September 1 in the narrow 18–20 °C range, with most guidance centering on 19 °C.** This keeps the Polymarket probabilities tightly bunched between 19 °C (36 %) and 20 °C (35 %), while lower-probability outcomes reflect residual tail risk from model spread. Key drivers include southwesterly flow advecting relatively mild maritime air, modest insolation under mostly cloudy skies, and scattered light showers that could cap daytime heating. Ensemble members differ mainly on the timing and coverage of any rain and the exact degree of cloud thinning during peak heating hours, producing the small but decisive spread between a 19 °C and 20 °C peak at the official measurement site. Historical climatology for early September (roughly 17–19 °C average high) provides context, but current short-range guidance shows slightly above-normal warmth that is still sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and radiative forcing. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Helsinki on September 1?
Highest temperature in Helsinki on September 1?
19°C 36%
20°C 35%
21°C 13%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
13°C or below
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C
1%
16°C
2%
17°C
5%
18°C
10%
19°C
36%
20°C
35%
21°C
13%
22°C
4%
23°C or higher
1%
19°C 36%
20°C 35%
21°C 13%
18°C 10%
NEW
NEW
Sep 1, 2026
13°C or below
$164 Vol.
<1%
14°C
$0 Vol.
<1%
15°C
$0 Vol.
1%
16°C
$30 Vol.
2%
17°C
$5 Vol.
5%
18°C
$61 Vol.
10%
19°C
$144 Vol.
36%
20°C
$96 Vol.
35%
21°C
$268 Vol.
13%
22°C
$72 Vol.
4%
23°C or higher
$57 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and major European models place Helsinki’s expected daily maximum for September 1 in the narrow 18–20 °C range, with most guidance centering on 19 °C.** This keeps the Polymarket probabilities tightly bunched between 19 °C (36 %) and 20 °C (35 %), while lower-probability outcomes reflect residual tail risk from model spread.
Key drivers include southwesterly flow advecting relatively mild maritime air, modest insolation under mostly cloudy skies, and scattered light showers that could cap daytime heating. Ensemble members differ mainly on the timing and coverage of any rain and the exact degree of cloud thinning during peak heating hours, producing the small but decisive spread between a 19 °C and 20 °C peak at the official measurement site. Historical climatology for early September (roughly 17–19 °C average high) provides context, but current short-range guidance shows slightly above-normal warmth that is still sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and radiative forcing. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$896End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and major European models place Helsinki’s expected daily maximum for September 1 in the narrow 18–20 °C range, with most guidance centering on 19 °C.** This keeps the Polymarket probabilities tightly bunched between 19 °C (36 %) and 20 °C (35 %), while lower-probability outcomes reflect residual tail risk from model spread.
Key drivers include southwesterly flow advecting relatively mild maritime air, modest insolation under mostly cloudy skies, and scattered light showers that could cap daytime heating. Ensemble members differ mainly on the timing and coverage of any rain and the exact degree of cloud thinning during peak heating hours, producing the small but decisive spread between a 19 °C and 20 °C peak at the official measurement site. Historical climatology for early September (roughly 17–19 °C average high) provides context, but current short-range guidance shows slightly above-normal warmth that is still sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and radiative forcing. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in trader consensus.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Helsinki Vantaa Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$896End Date
Sep 1, 2026Market Opened
Aug 30, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=efhkResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent forecasts from the Finnish Meteorological Institute and major European models place Helsinki’s expected daily maximum for September 1 in the narrow 18–20 °C range, with most guidance centering on 19 °C.** This keeps the Polymarket probabilities tightly bunched between 19 °C (36 %) and 20 °C (35 %), while lower-probability outcomes reflect residual tail risk from model spread. Key drivers include southwesterly flow advecting relatively mild maritime air, modest insolation under mostly cloudy skies, and scattered light showers that could cap daytime heating. Ensemble members differ mainly on the timing and coverage of any rain and the exact degree of cloud thinning during peak heating hours, producing the small but decisive spread between a 19 °C and 20 °C peak at the official measurement site. Historical climatology for early September (roughly 17–19 °C average high) provides context, but current short-range guidance shows slightly above-normal warmth that is still sensitive to small changes in boundary-layer moisture and radiative forcing. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24–48 hours will be the primary catalysts for any shift in trader consensus.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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