**Current NWS and NOAA forecasts for Dallas on September 5, 2026, call for mostly sunny skies under a building high-pressure ridge following the departure of Tropical Storm Edouard’s remnants, with highs of 99–101 °F and heat indices near 105–107 °F.** Southerly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s support strong daytime heating, placing the most likely maximum in the 98–99 °F bin that currently holds 59.5 % market-implied probability. This is 6–8 °F above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of ~93 °F for the date. Model consensus remains tight with limited spread, and no significant cloud cover or precipitation is expected to cap temperatures, keeping the 96–97 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes as secondary possibilities at 17.5 % and 23.0 % respectively. Updated NWS guidance through the morning of the 5th will provide the final observational confirmation before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
Highest temperature in Dallas on September 5?
98-99°F 60%
100-101°F 22%
96-97°F 16%
94-95°F 2%
$26,761 Vol.
$26,761 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
<1%
86-87°F
<1%
88-89°F
<1%
90-91°F
<1%
92-93°F
<1%
94-95°F
2%
96-97°F
16%
98-99°F
60%
100-101°F
22%
102-103°F
1%
104°F or higher
1%
98-99°F 60%
100-101°F 22%
96-97°F 16%
94-95°F 2%
$26,761 Vol.
$26,761 Vol.
Sep 5, 2026
85°F or below
$1,394 Vol.
<1%
86-87°F
$298 Vol.
<1%
88-89°F
$442 Vol.
<1%
90-91°F
$436 Vol.
<1%
92-93°F
$1,268 Vol.
<1%
94-95°F
$1,975 Vol.
2%
96-97°F
$5,863 Vol.
16%
98-99°F
$5,214 Vol.
60%
100-101°F
$4,586 Vol.
22%
102-103°F
$3,647 Vol.
1%
104°F or higher
$1,638 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS and NOAA forecasts for Dallas on September 5, 2026, call for mostly sunny skies under a building high-pressure ridge following the departure of Tropical Storm Edouard’s remnants, with highs of 99–101 °F and heat indices near 105–107 °F.** Southerly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s support strong daytime heating, placing the most likely maximum in the 98–99 °F bin that currently holds 59.5 % market-implied probability. This is 6–8 °F above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of ~93 °F for the date. Model consensus remains tight with limited spread, and no significant cloud cover or precipitation is expected to cap temperatures, keeping the 96–97 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes as secondary possibilities at 17.5 % and 23.0 % respectively. Updated NWS guidance through the morning of the 5th will provide the final observational confirmation before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ET
Volume
$26,761End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Current NWS and NOAA forecasts for Dallas on September 5, 2026, call for mostly sunny skies under a building high-pressure ridge following the departure of Tropical Storm Edouard’s remnants, with highs of 99–101 °F and heat indices near 105–107 °F.** Southerly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s support strong daytime heating, placing the most likely maximum in the 98–99 °F bin that currently holds 59.5 % market-implied probability. This is 6–8 °F above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of ~93 °F for the date. Model consensus remains tight with limited spread, and no significant cloud cover or precipitation is expected to cap temperatures, keeping the 96–97 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes as secondary possibilities at 17.5 % and 23.0 % respectively. Updated NWS guidance through the morning of the 5th will provide the final observational confirmation before market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Dallas Love Field Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdal
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$26,761End Date
Sep 5, 2026Market Opened
Sep 3, 2026, 2:56 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=kdalResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Current NWS and NOAA forecasts for Dallas on September 5, 2026, call for mostly sunny skies under a building high-pressure ridge following the departure of Tropical Storm Edouard’s remnants, with highs of 99–101 °F and heat indices near 105–107 °F.** Southerly winds of 5–10 mph and dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s support strong daytime heating, placing the most likely maximum in the 98–99 °F bin that currently holds 59.5 % market-implied probability. This is 6–8 °F above the 1991–2020 climatological average high of ~93 °F for the date. Model consensus remains tight with limited spread, and no significant cloud cover or precipitation is expected to cap temperatures, keeping the 96–97 °F and 100–101 °F outcomes as secondary possibilities at 17.5 % and 23.0 % respectively. Updated NWS guidance through the morning of the 5th will provide the final observational confirmation before market resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions