Persistent northwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are suppressing daytime heating in Cape Town, with official and ensemble forecasts converging on a September 14 maximum of 17–18 °C amid frequent showers and gusty winds. These conditions align with the market’s leading 18 °C outcome (37.5 % implied probability), while the secondary 19 °C and 17 °C contracts reflect residual model spread in timing and intensity of clearing. September climatology places the long-term average high near 19 °C, so the current cool, moist regime represents a modest negative anomaly driven by the synoptic pattern rather than seasonal norms. Traders will monitor the next 12–24 h model runs and any late adjustments from the South African Weather Service for evidence of brief breaks that could push the daily peak higher or lock in the lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedHighest temperature in Cape Town on September 14?
Highest temperature in Cape Town on September 14?
18°C 38%
19°C 25%
17°C 22%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
2%
14°C
2%
15°C
3%
16°C
7%
17°C
22%
18°C
38%
19°C
25%
20°C
8%
21°C
2%
22°C
2%
23°C or higher
<1%
18°C 38%
19°C 25%
17°C 22%
20°C 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 14, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
2%
14°C
$226 Vol.
2%
15°C
$92 Vol.
3%
16°C
$345 Vol.
7%
17°C
$2,073 Vol.
22%
18°C
$117 Vol.
38%
19°C
$2,560 Vol.
25%
20°C
$2,174 Vol.
8%
21°C
$208 Vol.
2%
22°C
$86 Vol.
2%
23°C or higher
$430 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are suppressing daytime heating in Cape Town, with official and ensemble forecasts converging on a September 14 maximum of 17–18 °C amid frequent showers and gusty winds. These conditions align with the market’s leading 18 °C outcome (37.5 % implied probability), while the secondary 19 °C and 17 °C contracts reflect residual model spread in timing and intensity of clearing. September climatology places the long-term average high near 19 °C, so the current cool, moist regime represents a modest negative anomaly driven by the synoptic pattern rather than seasonal norms. Traders will monitor the next 12–24 h model runs and any late adjustments from the South African Weather Service for evidence of brief breaks that could push the daily peak higher or lock in the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Market Opened: Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
Volume
$8,311End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent northwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are suppressing daytime heating in Cape Town, with official and ensemble forecasts converging on a September 14 maximum of 17–18 °C amid frequent showers and gusty winds. These conditions align with the market’s leading 18 °C outcome (37.5 % implied probability), while the secondary 19 °C and 17 °C contracts reflect residual model spread in timing and intensity of clearing. September climatology places the long-term average high near 19 °C, so the current cool, moist regime represents a modest negative anomaly driven by the synoptic pattern rather than seasonal norms. Traders will monitor the next 12–24 h model runs and any late adjustments from the South African Weather Service for evidence of brief breaks that could push the daily peak higher or lock in the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=fact
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volume
$8,311End Date
Sep 14, 2026Market Opened
Sep 12, 2026, 12:58 AM ETResolution Source
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=factResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent northwesterly flow and widespread cloud cover from an approaching frontal system are suppressing daytime heating in Cape Town, with official and ensemble forecasts converging on a September 14 maximum of 17–18 °C amid frequent showers and gusty winds. These conditions align with the market’s leading 18 °C outcome (37.5 % implied probability), while the secondary 19 °C and 17 °C contracts reflect residual model spread in timing and intensity of clearing. September climatology places the long-term average high near 19 °C, so the current cool, moist regime represents a modest negative anomaly driven by the synoptic pattern rather than seasonal norms. Traders will monitor the next 12–24 h model runs and any late adjustments from the South African Weather Service for evidence of brief breaks that could push the daily peak higher or lock in the lower end of the range.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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