Friedrich Merz’s CDU/CSU-SPD grand coalition has shown procedural resilience despite record-low approval ratings near 13-19 percent and AfD polling leads. Internal CDU speculation about a possible “chancellor swap” surfaced in summer 2026 after a contentious ministerial reshuffle, yet no no-confidence motion or successful party revolt has materialized. The coalition advanced a July reform package on taxes, pensions, and labor rules, with Merz stating the government had “found its footing.” Germany’s constitutional rules require either the chancellor’s own initiative or a difficult constructive vote of no confidence to change leadership, raising the bar for early removal. Upcoming September state elections in eastern states may test CDU support but appear unlikely to trigger resignation by December 2026 absent a sharper internal or parliamentary shift. Traders price this high institutional threshold into the 82.5 percent probability he remains in office.