Persistent deadlock over core issues such as territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment has stalled all formal negotiation tracks since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no framework. Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any deal on maximalist demands while Ukrainian and European positions emphasize robust protections and European involvement, leaving no active diplomatic process capable of producing signatures within the next thirteen days. Traders therefore assign near-certainty to “No,” reflecting the absence of scheduled summits, verified concessions, or battlefield shifts sufficient to force rapid closure. Only an unforeseen last-minute breakthrough in back-channel contacts or a dramatic reversal on the ground could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<1% chance
$261,011 Vol.
$261,011 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
<1% chance
$261,011 Vol.
$261,011 Vol.
Aug 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent deadlock over core issues such as territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment has stalled all formal negotiation tracks since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no framework. Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any deal on maximalist demands while Ukrainian and European positions emphasize robust protections and European involvement, leaving no active diplomatic process capable of producing signatures within the next thirteen days. Traders therefore assign near-certainty to “No,” reflecting the absence of scheduled summits, verified concessions, or battlefield shifts sufficient to force rapid closure. Only an unforeseen last-minute breakthrough in back-channel contacts or a dramatic reversal on the ground could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
Volume
$261,011End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Persistent deadlock over core issues such as territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment has stalled all formal negotiation tracks since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no framework. Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any deal on maximalist demands while Ukrainian and European positions emphasize robust protections and European involvement, leaving no active diplomatic process capable of producing signatures within the next thirteen days. Traders therefore assign near-certainty to “No,” reflecting the absence of scheduled summits, verified concessions, or battlefield shifts sufficient to force rapid closure. Only an unforeseen last-minute breakthrough in back-channel contacts or a dramatic reversal on the ground could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$261,011End Date
Aug 31, 2026Market Opened
Jun 18, 2026, 9:02 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent deadlock over core issues such as territorial control in Donbas, security guarantees, and Ukraine’s future alignment has stalled all formal negotiation tracks since early 2026 trilateral sessions in Abu Dhabi and Geneva produced no framework. Russian officials have repeatedly conditioned any deal on maximalist demands while Ukrainian and European positions emphasize robust protections and European involvement, leaving no active diplomatic process capable of producing signatures within the next thirteen days. Traders therefore assign near-certainty to “No,” reflecting the absence of scheduled summits, verified concessions, or battlefield shifts sufficient to force rapid closure. Only an unforeseen last-minute breakthrough in back-channel contacts or a dramatic reversal on the ground could still alter the outcome before the deadline.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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