Recent rounds of US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, Geneva, and elsewhere have produced only limited prisoner exchanges and temporary pauses, such as the April and May 2026 ceasefires, while core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees remain unresolved. Russian officials, including the Kremlin in July 2026, have stated there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive negotiations, citing maximalist demands on land and neutrality that Ukraine has rejected without durable assurances. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire and direct leader-level talks have not advanced, amid continued Russian strikes and European efforts to coordinate with Washington. These entrenched positions and stalled diplomacy explain the market’s 85.5% implied probability against a signed peace agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated15% chance
$2,571,950 Vol.
$2,571,950 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
15% chance
$2,571,950 Vol.
$2,571,950 Vol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent rounds of US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, Geneva, and elsewhere have produced only limited prisoner exchanges and temporary pauses, such as the April and May 2026 ceasefires, while core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees remain unresolved. Russian officials, including the Kremlin in July 2026, have stated there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive negotiations, citing maximalist demands on land and neutrality that Ukraine has rejected without durable assurances. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire and direct leader-level talks have not advanced, amid continued Russian strikes and European efforts to coordinate with Washington. These entrenched positions and stalled diplomacy explain the market’s 85.5% implied probability against a signed peace agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ET
Volume
$2,571,950End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent rounds of US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, Geneva, and elsewhere have produced only limited prisoner exchanges and temporary pauses, such as the April and May 2026 ceasefires, while core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees remain unresolved. Russian officials, including the Kremlin in July 2026, have stated there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive negotiations, citing maximalist demands on land and neutrality that Ukraine has rejected without durable assurances. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire and direct leader-level talks have not advanced, amid continued Russian strikes and European efforts to coordinate with Washington. These entrenched positions and stalled diplomacy explain the market’s 85.5% implied probability against a signed peace agreement before 2027.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, Ukraine signs any written instrument (e.g., treaty, ceasefire/armistice, framework/“roadmap,” exchange of letters, or mediated agreement text) that: (i) includes both Ukraine and the Russian Federation as parties, and (ii) either ends hostilities/establishes a ceasefire or commits both sides to a defined process toward ending the war (i.e., stated objective of peace/normalization plus principles, steps, and/or a timetable) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Only Ukraine’s signature is required; Russia’s signature or ratification is not.
Localized, temporary, or issue-specific arrangements—such as airstrike-limitation or deconfliction protocols, humanitarian pauses, evacuation corridors, prisoner-exchange or trade/export arrangements, border/DMZ adjustments, or ceasefires limited to a particular sector/front/municipality—will not qualify.
The document must bear a wet-ink or officially issued electronic signature of an authorized Ukrainian representative. Unsigned agreements (e.g., the 2023 Ohrid arrangement) will not qualify regardless of if they are otherwise officially enacted.
The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,571,950End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 12:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent rounds of US-brokered trilateral talks in Abu Dhabi, Geneva, and elsewhere have produced only limited prisoner exchanges and temporary pauses, such as the April and May 2026 ceasefires, while core disputes over territorial control in Donbas and security guarantees remain unresolved. Russian officials, including the Kremlin in July 2026, have stated there are no immediate prospects for resuming substantive negotiations, citing maximalist demands on land and neutrality that Ukraine has rejected without durable assurances. Ukrainian proposals for an unconditional ceasefire and direct leader-level talks have not advanced, amid continued Russian strikes and European efforts to coordinate with Washington. These entrenched positions and stalled diplomacy explain the market’s 85.5% implied probability against a signed peace agreement before 2027.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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