**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with the market's leading 10-13% band.** Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (11%), Forsa (12%), Civey (13%), and INSA (15%) cluster around 12-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from the party's 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. The SPD, currently governing in a CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in most aggregates. Its weakness stems from the national SPD's broader difficulties—polling near 12% federally—and local competition from the surging Linke, which draws from similar voter bases. No major recent events have reversed this trend, keeping the 10-13% range as the consensus view among traders. Higher outcomes above 16% or below 10% remain possible but appear less probable given stable polling through early September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedBerlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
Berlin State Election: SPD Vote Share?
10-13% 51%
13-16% 33%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
12%
10-13%
51%
13-16%
33%
16%+
8%
10-13% 51%
13-16% 33%
<10% 11.9%
16%+ 8%
NEW
NEW
Sep 20, 2026
<10%
$2,006 Vol.
12%
10-13%
$3,514 Vol.
51%
13-16%
$1,806 Vol.
33%
16%+
$2,316 Vol.
8%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with the market's leading 10-13% band.** Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (11%), Forsa (12%), Civey (13%), and INSA (15%) cluster around 12-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from the party's 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election.
The SPD, currently governing in a CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in most aggregates. Its weakness stems from the national SPD's broader difficulties—polling near 12% federally—and local competition from the surging Linke, which draws from similar voter bases. No major recent events have reversed this trend, keeping the 10-13% range as the consensus view among traders. Higher outcomes above 16% or below 10% remain possible but appear less probable given stable polling through early September.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Market Opened: Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ET
Volume
$9,641End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with the market's leading 10-13% band.** Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (11%), Forsa (12%), Civey (13%), and INSA (15%) cluster around 12-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from the party's 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election.
The SPD, currently governing in a CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in most aggregates. Its weakness stems from the national SPD's broader difficulties—polling near 12% federally—and local competition from the surging Linke, which draws from similar voter bases. No major recent events have reversed this trend, keeping the 10-13% range as the consensus view among traders. Higher outcomes above 16% or below 10% remain possible but appear less probable given stable polling through early September.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by SPD in the specified election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid second votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid second votes in the specified election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin) attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Volume
$9,641End Date
Sep 20, 2026Market Opened
Aug 20, 2026, 2:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...**Recent polling for the September 20, 2026 Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election places the SPD consistently in the low-to-mid teens, aligning with the market's leading 10-13% band.** Latest surveys from Infratest dimap (11%), Forsa (12%), Civey (13%), and INSA (15%) cluster around 12-13%, reflecting a sharp decline from the party's 18.4% share in the 2023 repeat election. The SPD, currently governing in a CDU-SPD coalition under Mayor Kai Wegner, trails the CDU, Linke, AfD, and Greens in most aggregates. Its weakness stems from the national SPD's broader difficulties—polling near 12% federally—and local competition from the surging Linke, which draws from similar voter bases. No major recent events have reversed this trend, keeping the 10-13% range as the consensus view among traders. Higher outcomes above 16% or below 10% remain possible but appear less probable given stable polling through early September.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions