US Treasury’s June 22, 2026 issuance of General License X provided temporary 60-day sanctions relief on Iranian crude, petroleum products, and related services through August 21, unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion from stranded inventories and enabling dollar-denominated payments as part of an MOU tied to nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz access. This followed fragile ceasefire talks and a naval blockade lift, with further extensions or reissuances contingent on verifiable Iranian compliance and congressional review under INARA. Market-implied odds on reissuance by late 2026 reflect trader assessment of negotiation momentum versus statutory and geopolitical constraints, with upcoming catalysts including any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or renewed IAEA reporting that could shift oil supply expectations and Treasury yields.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$342,444 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
7%
$342,444 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$12,173 Vol.
7%
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury’s June 22, 2026 issuance of General License X provided temporary 60-day sanctions relief on Iranian crude, petroleum products, and related services through August 21, unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion from stranded inventories and enabling dollar-denominated payments as part of an MOU tied to nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz access. This followed fragile ceasefire talks and a naval blockade lift, with further extensions or reissuances contingent on verifiable Iranian compliance and congressional review under INARA. Market-implied odds on reissuance by late 2026 reflect trader assessment of negotiation momentum versus statutory and geopolitical constraints, with upcoming catalysts including any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or renewed IAEA reporting that could shift oil supply expectations and Treasury yields.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ET
Volumen
$342,444Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.US Treasury’s June 22, 2026 issuance of General License X provided temporary 60-day sanctions relief on Iranian crude, petroleum products, and related services through August 21, unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion from stranded inventories and enabling dollar-denominated payments as part of an MOU tied to nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz access. This followed fragile ceasefire talks and a naval blockade lift, with further extensions or reissuances contingent on verifiable Iranian compliance and congressional review under INARA. Market-implied odds on reissuance by late 2026 reflect trader assessment of negotiation momentum versus statutory and geopolitical constraints, with upcoming catalysts including any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or renewed IAEA reporting that could shift oil supply expectations and Treasury yields.
On July 7, 2026, the United States revoked a sanctions waiver, “General License X,” which allowed for the sale of Iranian oil (see: https://thehill.com/policy/energy-environment/5957647-iran-oil-sanctions-waiver-strait-of-hormuz/).
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States federal government issues a waiver, license, or equivalent sanctions-relief mechanism lifting US sanctions on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
Actions which direct partial or full sanction relief will both qualify. However, qualifying actions must reverse, remove, waive, or suspend US penalties on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products, in whole or in part.
Qualifying actions need not be permanent; temporary suspensions of sanctions will qualify. Relief issued for either primary or secondary sanctions will qualify. A re-issuance of the initial waiver will qualify. The full removal of any sanction on the sale of Iranian oil, petrochemical products, or petroleum products will also qualify.
Continued sales of Iranian oil allowed during the wind-down period under this revocation order will not qualify. Mere extensions of the wind-down period, without issuance of a new qualifying sanctions-relief action, will not qualify.
Once a qualifying sanctions relief action has been taken, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of any subsequent revocation.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government.
Volumen
$342,444Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 10:59 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US Treasury’s June 22, 2026 issuance of General License X provided temporary 60-day sanctions relief on Iranian crude, petroleum products, and related services through August 21, unlocking an estimated $8–9 billion from stranded inventories and enabling dollar-denominated payments as part of an MOU tied to nuclear inspections and Strait of Hormuz access. This followed fragile ceasefire talks and a naval blockade lift, with further extensions or reissuances contingent on verifiable Iranian compliance and congressional review under INARA. Market-implied odds on reissuance by late 2026 reflect trader assessment of negotiation momentum versus statutory and geopolitical constraints, with upcoming catalysts including any FOMC-adjacent energy price signals or renewed IAEA reporting that could shift oil supply expectations and Treasury yields.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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