Persistent Houthi threats and enforcement actions against Saudi-linked shipping, including missile strikes on tankers in July and August 2026, continue to constrain transits through Bab el-Mandeb, with weekly volumes recently stabilizing near 200–270 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums of 0.5–1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting. Tanker flows have declined sharply while container traffic shows more resilience, keeping aggregate weekly counts well below the pre-crisis 450+ level. Market-implied odds clustered around 170–229 reflect trader consensus on these sustained risk premia and limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the September 7 week, with any fresh attacks or flag-specific exemptions serving as key swing factors for the distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 7 de septiembre?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 7 de septiembre?
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230+ 13%
NUEVO
$35,474 Vol.
NUEVO
$35,474 Vol.
13 sep 2026
<170
9%
170-189
31%
190-209
25%
210-229
24%
230+
13%
170-189 31%
190-209 25%
210-229 24%
230+ 13%
NUEVO
$35,474 Vol.
NUEVO
$35,474 Vol.
13 sep 2026
<170
$13,723 Vol.
9%
170-189
$140 Vol.
31%
190-209
$211 Vol.
25%
210-229
$200 Vol.
24%
230+
$21,199 Vol.
13%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and enforcement actions against Saudi-linked shipping, including missile strikes on tankers in July and August 2026, continue to constrain transits through Bab el-Mandeb, with weekly volumes recently stabilizing near 200–270 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums of 0.5–1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting. Tanker flows have declined sharply while container traffic shows more resilience, keeping aggregate weekly counts well below the pre-crisis 450+ level. Market-implied odds clustered around 170–229 reflect trader consensus on these sustained risk premia and limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the September 7 week, with any fresh attacks or flag-specific exemptions serving as key swing factors for the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Volumen
$35,474Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Persistent Houthi threats and enforcement actions against Saudi-linked shipping, including missile strikes on tankers in July and August 2026, continue to constrain transits through Bab el-Mandeb, with weekly volumes recently stabilizing near 200–270 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums of 0.5–1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting. Tanker flows have declined sharply while container traffic shows more resilience, keeping aggregate weekly counts well below the pre-crisis 450+ level. Market-implied odds clustered around 170–229 reflect trader consensus on these sustained risk premia and limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the September 7 week, with any fresh attacks or flag-specific exemptions serving as key swing factors for the distribution.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from September 7, 2026, through September 13, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$35,474Fecha de finalización
13 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Sep 3, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent Houthi threats and enforcement actions against Saudi-linked shipping, including missile strikes on tankers in July and August 2026, continue to constrain transits through Bab el-Mandeb, with weekly volumes recently stabilizing near 200–270 vessels amid elevated war-risk premiums of 0.5–1% of hull value and selective carrier rerouting. Tanker flows have declined sharply while container traffic shows more resilience, keeping aggregate weekly counts well below the pre-crisis 450+ level. Market-implied odds clustered around 170–229 reflect trader consensus on these sustained risk premia and limited near-term de-escalation signals ahead of the September 7 week, with any fresh attacks or flag-specific exemptions serving as key swing factors for the distribution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoRelacionado
¿Transitarán entre 190 y 209 barcos el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb entre el 31 de agosto y el 6 de septiembre?
40%
Sí
¿Habrá menos de 25 tránsitos diarios promedio por el estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb el 30 de septiembre?
47%
Sí
¿Habrá entre 25 y 29 tránsitos diarios promedio por el Estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb el 31 de agosto?
69%
Sí
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes