US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of market-implied probabilities, as roughly 20 US warships—including carriers and destroyers—continue escorting commercial traffic and enforcing blockades through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Recent mine-clearance operations and strikes have supported transit of over 750 million barrels since early 2026, directly affecting WTI crude benchmarks and shipping insurance premiums while sustaining elevated energy price volatility. Broader trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around potential de-escalation talks involving Oman and Qatar versus sustained US presence through year-end, with any reduction in naval activity likely to ease supply disruption risks priced into futures markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Qué países enviarán buques de guerra a través del Estrecho de Ormuz antes del 31 de diciembre?
¿Qué países enviarán buques de guerra a través del Estrecho de Ormuz antes del 31 de diciembre?
$37,622 Vol.
31 dic 2026
EE. UU.
22%
Italia
14%
Reino Unido
13%
Francia
11%
Australia
10%
Países Bajos
9%
Alemania
9%
Grecia
34%
$37,622 Vol.
EE. UU.
$7,112 Vol.
22%
Italia
$16 Vol.
14%
Reino Unido
$37 Vol.
13%
Francia
$13,997 Vol.
11%
Australia
$0 Vol.
10%
Países Bajos
$16,402 Vol.
9%
Alemania
$6 Vol.
9%
Grecia
$52 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of market-implied probabilities, as roughly 20 US warships—including carriers and destroyers—continue escorting commercial traffic and enforcing blockades through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Recent mine-clearance operations and strikes have supported transit of over 750 million barrels since early 2026, directly affecting WTI crude benchmarks and shipping insurance premiums while sustaining elevated energy price volatility. Broader trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around potential de-escalation talks involving Oman and Qatar versus sustained US presence through year-end, with any reduction in naval activity likely to ease supply disruption risks priced into futures markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Volumen
$37,622Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of market-implied probabilities, as roughly 20 US warships—including carriers and destroyers—continue escorting commercial traffic and enforcing blockades through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Recent mine-clearance operations and strikes have supported transit of over 750 million barrels since early 2026, directly affecting WTI crude benchmarks and shipping insurance premiums while sustaining elevated energy price volatility. Broader trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around potential de-escalation talks involving Oman and Qatar versus sustained US presence through year-end, with any reduction in naval activity likely to ease supply disruption risks priced into futures markets.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
A "warship transit" is defined as a military vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Military cargo or support vessels will be considered “warships”; however, commercial or civilian vessels will not qualify.
For the purposes of this market, only transits through the Strait of Hormuz will be considered, defined as passage through the narrowest portion of the waterway between Iran and Oman. Operations solely in the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea without passage through this narrowest section will not qualify.
Official confirmation by a national government or its military that its vessels transited through the Strait of Hormuz during the specified timeframe will resolve this market immediately. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such a transit occurred during the specified timeframe will also suffice.
Qualifying confirmations must be made within this markets above specified timeframe and include official announcements that a country has deployed naval vessels to transit or escort shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
Confirmations referring only to naval presence in the broader region, including the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman, or Arabian Sea, without confirmed transit through the Strait itself, as well as aerial operations, cyber operations, or actions by proxies or third parties, will not alone qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information by the respective national governments or their militaries; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
Volumen
$37,622Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US naval operations amid the ongoing Iran conflict represent the dominant driver of market-implied probabilities, as roughly 20 US warships—including carriers and destroyers—continue escorting commercial traffic and enforcing blockades through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling about one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows. Recent mine-clearance operations and strikes have supported transit of over 750 million barrels since early 2026, directly affecting WTI crude benchmarks and shipping insurance premiums while sustaining elevated energy price volatility. Broader trader sentiment reflects uncertainty around potential de-escalation talks involving Oman and Qatar versus sustained US presence through year-end, with any reduction in naval activity likely to ease supply disruption risks priced into futures markets.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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