**Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, elevated war-risk premiums, and cautious carrier rerouting decisions are the main drivers shaping trader views on Bab el-Mandeb transits through late September 2026.** As of late August, visible AIS-tracked weekly volumes at the strait have stabilized around 223–269 crossings (roughly 32–38 per day on average), well below pre-2023 norms of 60–80 daily transits but above the immediate post-July blockade lows. A fresh strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan on August 24 extended the Houthi naval blockade of Saudi tonnage, pushing war-risk premiums higher (often case-by-case for Saudi exposure) and prompting carriers to treat any Suez returns as conditional. Major lines including Maersk, MSC, and others have shifted some Asia-Europe services back through the strait, but many continue dark (AIS-off) transits or Cape of Good Hope routing to manage risk, with the latter adding 10–14 days and substantial bunker costs. Tanker flows—especially Saudi crude loadings from Yanbu—have fallen sharply (roughly 30–50% in recent weeks per Kpler and similar trackers), while containership and bulker volumes show modest week-to-week gains amid mixed incentives. Leading market bins of 25–29 and 30–34 ships reflect this equilibrium: persistent attack risk and insurance costs cap upside, yet partial Suez resumption and resilient non-compliant or sanctioned traffic prevent a sharper drop toward the <25 bucket. Key swing factors through September include any escalation or pause in Houthi activity, further shifts in carrier routing economics, and revisions to tanker or container volumes tied to oil export patterns and global freight rates.