Recent U.S.-Iran military operations in early 2026, including joint strikes with Israel under Operation Epic Fury, targeted Iranian military infrastructure and leadership but stopped short of ground invasion or territorial occupation. A ceasefire took hold in April, followed by the June Islamabad Memorandum establishing a 60-day negotiation window, sanctions relief tied to verified steps on nuclear issues, and a proposed $300 billion economic development framework. Ongoing diplomatic engagement through technical talks, mediated by regional actors, has prioritized reopening the Strait of Hormuz and de-escalation over renewed hostilities. With the recent conflict highlighting high costs in munitions, regional retaliation risks, and global economic disruption, trader consensus reflects the current trajectory toward sustained negotiations rather than escalation to full-scale invasion before 2027.