U.S. officials have pursued regime change in Cuba through sustained economic pressure, including a January 2026 fuel blockade and related tariffs after the Venezuela intervention cut off prior oil supplies, alongside executive orders imposing sanctions on repression and national security grounds. President Trump has referenced negotiations, a possible "friendly takeover," and regime transition goals by year-end, while deploying surveillance assets and a carrier group for signaling. However, senior administration statements have repeatedly clarified that no invasion is authorized or imminent, favoring sanctions and potential aid tied to reforms over direct military action. With roughly five months remaining in 2026 and no kinetic operations underway, trader consensus assigns an overwhelming probability against an invasion occurring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
8% probabilidad
$3,256,307 Vol.
$3,256,307 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
8% probabilidad
$3,256,307 Vol.
$3,256,307 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. officials have pursued regime change in Cuba through sustained economic pressure, including a January 2026 fuel blockade and related tariffs after the Venezuela intervention cut off prior oil supplies, alongside executive orders imposing sanctions on repression and national security grounds. President Trump has referenced negotiations, a possible "friendly takeover," and regime transition goals by year-end, while deploying surveillance assets and a carrier group for signaling. However, senior administration statements have repeatedly clarified that no invasion is authorized or imminent, favoring sanctions and potential aid tied to reforms over direct military action. With roughly five months remaining in 2026 and no kinetic operations underway, trader consensus assigns an overwhelming probability against an invasion occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Mercado abierto: Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ET
Volumen
$3,256,307Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.U.S. officials have pursued regime change in Cuba through sustained economic pressure, including a January 2026 fuel blockade and related tariffs after the Venezuela intervention cut off prior oil supplies, alongside executive orders imposing sanctions on repression and national security grounds. President Trump has referenced negotiations, a possible "friendly takeover," and regime transition goals by year-end, while deploying surveillance assets and a carrier group for signaling. However, senior administration statements have repeatedly clarified that no invasion is authorized or imminent, favoring sanctions and potential aid tied to reforms over direct military action. With roughly five months remaining in 2026 and no kinetic operations underway, trader consensus assigns an overwhelming probability against an invasion occurring.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Cuban land territory by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Cuba or the United States as market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Volumen
$3,256,307Fecha de finalización
31 dic 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 4, 2026, 3:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...U.S. officials have pursued regime change in Cuba through sustained economic pressure, including a January 2026 fuel blockade and related tariffs after the Venezuela intervention cut off prior oil supplies, alongside executive orders imposing sanctions on repression and national security grounds. President Trump has referenced negotiations, a possible "friendly takeover," and regime transition goals by year-end, while deploying surveillance assets and a carrier group for signaling. However, senior administration statements have repeatedly clarified that no invasion is authorized or imminent, favoring sanctions and potential aid tied to reforms over direct military action. With roughly five months remaining in 2026 and no kinetic operations underway, trader consensus assigns an overwhelming probability against an invasion occurring.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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