Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits reflects persistent Houthi-related security risks and associated war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter some carriers from the Red Sea route despite recent volume rebounds. Daily passages have fluctuated between roughly 30–39 vessels in July amid threats of renewed targeting and selective Saudi crude rerouting via Yanbu, with market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets because incremental changes in freight economics or any escalation could readily shift realized counts across that narrow band. Key swing factors include upcoming cargo schedules, real-time premium adjustments, and potential last-minute diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 17 de agosto?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 17 de agosto?
180-199 40%
160-179 39%
200+ 22%
<160 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
<160
16%
160-179
39%
180-199
40%
200+
22%
180-199 40%
160-179 39%
200+ 22%
<160 16%
NUEVO
NUEVO
23 ago 2026
<160
$372 Vol.
16%
160-179
$0 Vol.
39%
180-199
$0 Vol.
40%
200+
$0 Vol.
22%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits reflects persistent Houthi-related security risks and associated war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter some carriers from the Red Sea route despite recent volume rebounds. Daily passages have fluctuated between roughly 30–39 vessels in July amid threats of renewed targeting and selective Saudi crude rerouting via Yanbu, with market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets because incremental changes in freight economics or any escalation could readily shift realized counts across that narrow band. Key swing factors include upcoming cargo schedules, real-time premium adjustments, and potential last-minute diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ET
Volumen
$372Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits reflects persistent Houthi-related security risks and associated war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter some carriers from the Red Sea route despite recent volume rebounds. Daily passages have fluctuated between roughly 30–39 vessels in July amid threats of renewed targeting and selective Saudi crude rerouting via Yanbu, with market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets because incremental changes in freight economics or any escalation could readily shift realized counts across that narrow band. Key swing factors include upcoming cargo schedules, real-time premium adjustments, and potential last-minute diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 17, 2026, through August 23, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$372Fecha de finalización
23 ago 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 14, 2026, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment on Bab el-Mandeb weekly transits reflects persistent Houthi-related security risks and associated war-risk insurance premiums that continue to deter some carriers from the Red Sea route despite recent volume rebounds. Daily passages have fluctuated between roughly 30–39 vessels in July amid threats of renewed targeting and selective Saudi crude rerouting via Yanbu, with market-implied odds clustered tightly between the 160–179 and 180–199 buckets because incremental changes in freight economics or any escalation could readily shift realized counts across that narrow band. Key swing factors include upcoming cargo schedules, real-time premium adjustments, and potential last-minute diversions around the Cape of Good Hope.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes