Ongoing regional tensions from the US-Iran conflict and its aftermath continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening each time but facing repeated disruptions, including a June Yemen-launched missile interception. As of mid-August 2026, civilian operations remain open amid a broken US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA maintains elevated risk advisories due to threats from Hezbollah and other proxies. International carriers continue limiting service, and scheduled diplomatic or military developments could trigger short-notice restrictions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado$27,250,830 Vol.
15 jul 2026
31 de agosto
5%
$27,250,830 Vol.
31 de agosto
$1,218,950 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions from the US-Iran conflict and its aftermath continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening each time but facing repeated disruptions, including a June Yemen-launched missile interception. As of mid-August 2026, civilian operations remain open amid a broken US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA maintains elevated risk advisories due to threats from Hezbollah and other proxies. International carriers continue limiting service, and scheduled diplomatic or military developments could trigger short-notice restrictions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Mercado abierto: Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ET
Volumen
$27,250,830Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Ongoing regional tensions from the US-Iran conflict and its aftermath continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening each time but facing repeated disruptions, including a June Yemen-launched missile interception. As of mid-August 2026, civilian operations remain open amid a broken US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA maintains elevated risk advisories due to threats from Hezbollah and other proxies. International carriers continue limiting service, and scheduled diplomatic or military developments could trigger short-notice restrictions.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volumen
$27,250,830Fecha de finalización
31 may 2026Mercado abierto
Jun 29, 2026, 10:46 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing regional tensions from the US-Iran conflict and its aftermath continue to shape trader views on potential Israeli airspace closures. Multiple temporary shutdowns occurred between February and July 2026 after US-Israeli strikes on Iran and subsequent Iranian missile and drone responses, with the Tel Aviv FIR reopening each time but facing repeated disruptions, including a June Yemen-launched missile interception. As of mid-August 2026, civilian operations remain open amid a broken US-Iran ceasefire and renewed activity near the Strait of Hormuz, though EASA maintains elevated risk advisories due to threats from Hezbollah and other proxies. International carriers continue limiting service, and scheduled diplomatic or military developments could trigger short-notice restrictions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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