Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 31 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del 31 de agosto por el Estrecho de Ormuz?
20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
NUEVO
$13,861 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,861 Vol.
6 sep 2026
<20
14%
20-39
62%
40-59
18%
60-79
7%
80+
1%
20-39 62%
40-59 18%
<20 14%
60-79 7%
NUEVO
$13,861 Vol.
NUEVO
$13,861 Vol.
6 sep 2026
<20
$682 Vol.
14%
20-39
$11,684 Vol.
62%
40-59
$1,025 Vol.
18%
60-79
$230 Vol.
7%
80+
$240 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Volumen
$13,861Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Strait of Hormuz for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Volumen
$13,861Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing US-Iran conflict and the resulting blockade have kept commercial transits through the Strait of Hormuz severely depressed, with daily counts averaging around five vessels in recent weeks versus pre-war norms exceeding 100. War-risk insurance premiums at 40 times normal levels, combined with mine threats, IRGC enforcement actions, and dark transits (AIS off), have curtailed activity, producing recent weekly totals in the low dozens as reported by Kpler and Windward data. Trader consensus at 62% for 20-39 transits in the week of August 31 reflects these structural barriers, while modest upside potential from ongoing Iran-Oman corridor talks remains constrained by fresh US sanctions and persistent routing uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes