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icon for ¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?

¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?

icon for ¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?

¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?

190-209 43%

170-189 33%

230+ 16%

210-229 8%

Polymarket
NUEVO

$24,342 Vol.

190-209 43%

170-189 33%

230+ 16%

210-229 8%

Polymarket
NUEVO

$24,342 Vol.

<170

$116 Vol.

3%

170-189

$116 Vol.

33%

190-209

$2,069 Vol.

43%

210-229

$8,983 Vol.

8%

230+

$13,058 Vol.

16%

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$24,342
Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.

This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.

Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.

This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.

In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.

Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.

The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Volumen
$24,342
Fecha de finalización
6 sep 2026
Mercado abierto
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.

Cuidado con los enlaces externos.

Preguntas frecuentes

"¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?" es un mercado de predicción en Polymarket con 5 resultados posibles donde los operadores compran y venden acciones según lo que creen que sucederá. El resultado líder actual es "190-209" con 43%, seguido de "170-189" con 33%. Los precios reflejan probabilidades en tiempo real de la comunidad. Por ejemplo, una acción cotizada a 43¢ implica que el mercado colectivamente asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. Estas probabilidades cambian continuamente a medida que los operadores reaccionan a nuevos desarrollos. Las acciones del resultado correcto son canjeables por $1 cada una tras la resolución del mercado.

A día de hoy, "¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?" ha generado $24.3K en volumen total de trading desde que el mercado se lanzó el Aug 28, 2026. Este nivel de actividad refleja un fuerte compromiso de la comunidad de Polymarket y ayuda a garantizar que las probabilidades actuales estén respaldadas por un amplio grupo de participantes del mercado. Puedes seguir los movimientos de precios en vivo y operar en cualquier resultado directamente en esta página.

Para operar en "¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?", explora los 5 resultados disponibles en esta página. Cada resultado muestra un precio actual que representa la probabilidad implícita del mercado. Para tomar una posición, selecciona el resultado que consideres más probable, elige "Sí" para operar a favor o "No" para operar en contra, introduce tu cantidad y haz clic en "Operar". Si tu resultado elegido es correcto cuando el mercado se resuelve, tus acciones de "Sí" pagan $1 cada una. Si es incorrecto, pagan $0. También puedes vender tus acciones en cualquier momento antes de la resolución.

El favorito actual para "¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?" es "190-209" con 43%, lo que significa que el mercado asigna una probabilidad de 43% a ese resultado. El siguiente resultado más cercano es "170-189" con 33%. Estas probabilidades se actualizan en tiempo real a medida que los operadores compran y venden acciones. Vuelve con frecuencia o guarda esta página en marcadores.

Las reglas de resolución para "¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?" definen exactamente qué debe ocurrir para que cada resultado sea declarado ganador, incluyendo las fuentes de datos oficiales utilizadas para determinar el resultado. Puedes revisar los criterios de resolución completos en la sección "Reglas" en esta página sobre los comentarios. Recomendamos leer las reglas cuidadosamente antes de operar, ya que especifican las condiciones exactas, casos especiales y fuentes.