**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Cuántos barcos transitan la semana del estrecho de Bab el-Mandeb del 31 de agosto?
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
$24,342 Vol.
$24,342 Vol.
<170
3%
170-189
33%
190-209
43%
210-229
8%
230+
16%
190-209 43%
170-189 33%
230+ 16%
210-229 8%
$24,342 Vol.
$24,342 Vol.
<170
3%
170-189
33%
190-209
43%
210-229
8%
230+
16%
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Mercado abierto: Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...**Trader sentiment for weekly Bab el-Mandeb transits centers on the uneven recovery in Suez routing amid persistent Houthi risks.** Recent MarineTraffic and Kpler data show AIS-visible crossings rising modestly to the 223–269 range in mid-to-late August, with containership, bulker, and tanker volumes each posting double-digit week-over-week gains as Maersk, MSC, CMA CGM, and COSCO incrementally restore Asia-Europe services. This supports the market’s concentration around the 170–209 bands, reflecting a base rate still roughly 40% below pre-crisis norms. Key differentiating factors include war-risk premiums that have risen again (now case-by-case for Saudi-linked tonnage), a surge in “dark” (AIS-off) transits to evade targeting, and selective Houthi enforcement against Saudi-bound vessels that has cut Yanbu crude loadings by at least one-third since early August. Recent attacks, such as the 24 August strike on the Saudi tanker Amzan and the 11 August incident on the Tihamah, reinforce carrier caution even as spot freight rates ease and more than 30% of certain Maersk Asia-Europe volumes shift back through the strait. The narrow gap between the 190–209 and 170–189 outcomes captures uncertainty over whether incremental service restorations will lift the weekly total above 210 or whether renewed risk aversion and dark-ship undercounting will cap it near recent lows. Resolution hinges on the balance between carrier risk assessments and any further Houthi actions in the immediate period.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes