Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. military operations have focused on airstrikes against military targets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, and Greater Tunb to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, including rocket and mine preparations, without reported ground operations or territorial seizures. No verified incidents, diplomatic agreements, or military actions have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with the pattern of precision strikes rather than occupation. Trader-implied probabilities for any change by late 2026 reflect the high barriers to rapid sovereignty shifts in this environment, where Iranian forces retain primary authority over Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Further escalation or de-escalation negotiations could influence outcomes, though current developments show no such trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿La isla Farsi ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
¿La isla Farsi ya no está bajo control iraní por...?
$197,515 Vol.
30 sep 2026
30 de septiembre
1%
$197,515 Vol.
30 de septiembre
$20,245 Vol.
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. military operations have focused on airstrikes against military targets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, and Greater Tunb to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, including rocket and mine preparations, without reported ground operations or territorial seizures. No verified incidents, diplomatic agreements, or military actions have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with the pattern of precision strikes rather than occupation. Trader-implied probabilities for any change by late 2026 reflect the high barriers to rapid sovereignty shifts in this environment, where Iranian forces retain primary authority over Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Further escalation or de-escalation negotiations could influence outcomes, though current developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volumen
$197,515Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. military operations have focused on airstrikes against military targets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, and Greater Tunb to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, including rocket and mine preparations, without reported ground operations or territorial seizures. No verified incidents, diplomatic agreements, or military actions have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with the pattern of precision strikes rather than occupation. Trader-implied probabilities for any change by late 2026 reflect the high barriers to rapid sovereignty shifts in this environment, where Iranian forces retain primary authority over Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Further escalation or de-escalation negotiations could influence outcomes, though current developments show no such trajectory.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$197,515Fecha de finalización
1 oct 2026Mercado abierto
Aug 26, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Farsi Island, a small IRGC Navy outpost in the northern Persian Gulf, has remained under uninterrupted Iranian sovereignty amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict that escalated in February 2026. U.S. military operations have focused on airstrikes against military targets on nearby islands such as Larak, Qeshm, Kharg, and Greater Tunb to counter threats to Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes, including rocket and mine preparations, without reported ground operations or territorial seizures. No verified incidents, diplomatic agreements, or military actions have altered control of Farsi Island itself, consistent with the pattern of precision strikes rather than occupation. Trader-implied probabilities for any change by late 2026 reflect the high barriers to rapid sovereignty shifts in this environment, where Iranian forces retain primary authority over Gulf islands despite sustained pressure. Further escalation or de-escalation negotiations could influence outcomes, though current developments show no such trajectory.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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