Iran's refusal to commit to halting uranium enrichment underpins the near-certain trader consensus against an agreement by September 30. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day window for final nuclear talks, including stockpile disposition and IAEA oversight, yet those negotiations collapsed amid disputes over inspections of damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September, Iran continues to block full IAEA access, leaving the agency unable to verify the location or status of its 60-percent enriched uranium, while Tehran upholds its position that enrichment remains a sovereign right. Absent any verifiable diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian concessions in the remaining weeks, the tight timeline and entrenched positions on verification and program limits sustain the overwhelming probability that no such agreement will materialize.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
¿Irán acuerda poner fin al enriquecimiento de uranio antes del 30 de septiembre?
Sí
2% probabilidad
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 sep 2026
Sí
2% probabilidad
$64,609 Vol.
$64,609 Vol.
30 sep 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's refusal to commit to halting uranium enrichment underpins the near-certain trader consensus against an agreement by September 30. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day window for final nuclear talks, including stockpile disposition and IAEA oversight, yet those negotiations collapsed amid disputes over inspections of damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September, Iran continues to block full IAEA access, leaving the agency unable to verify the location or status of its 60-percent enriched uranium, while Tehran upholds its position that enrichment remains a sovereign right. Absent any verifiable diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian concessions in the remaining weeks, the tight timeline and entrenched positions on verification and program limits sustain the overwhelming probability that no such agreement will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mercado abierto: Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ET
Volumen
$64,609Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. Iran's refusal to commit to halting uranium enrichment underpins the near-certain trader consensus against an agreement by September 30. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day window for final nuclear talks, including stockpile disposition and IAEA oversight, yet those negotiations collapsed amid disputes over inspections of damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September, Iran continues to block full IAEA access, leaving the agency unable to verify the location or status of its 60-percent enriched uranium, while Tehran upholds its position that enrichment remains a sovereign right. Absent any verifiable diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian concessions in the remaining weeks, the tight timeline and entrenched positions on verification and program limits sustain the overwhelming probability that no such agreement will materialize.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution, whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$64,609Fecha de finalización
30 sep 2026Mercado abierto
Jul 9, 2026, 9:43 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's refusal to commit to halting uranium enrichment underpins the near-certain trader consensus against an agreement by September 30. The June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day window for final nuclear talks, including stockpile disposition and IAEA oversight, yet those negotiations collapsed amid disputes over inspections of damaged sites at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan. As of early September, Iran continues to block full IAEA access, leaving the agency unable to verify the location or status of its 60-percent enriched uranium, while Tehran upholds its position that enrichment remains a sovereign right. Absent any verifiable diplomatic breakthrough or Iranian concessions in the remaining weeks, the tight timeline and entrenched positions on verification and program limits sustain the overwhelming probability that no such agreement will materialize.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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