Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs near 70–72°F on August 26, consistent with August climatology shaped by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% across the 69–83°F bins, as traders weigh typical coastal cooling against minor variability from haze or brief clearing. The 50% odds on 88°F or higher reflect low but non-zero tail risk if the marine layer weakens unusually, while the 2.5% on 84–85°F and sub-70% outcomes align with historical rarity of extremes under current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in San Francisco am 26. August?
Höchste Temperatur in San Francisco am 26. August?
76-77°F 24%
74-75°F 24%
78-79°F 15%
82-83 °F 11%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
69°F oder niedriger
5%
70-71°F
7%
72-73°F
11%
74-75°F
24%
76-77°F
24%
78-79°F
15%
80-81°F
9%
82-83 °F
11%
84-85 °F
5%
30–30,5°C
5%
88°F oder höher
5%
76-77°F 24%
74-75°F 24%
78-79°F 15%
82-83 °F 11%
NEU
NEU
26. Aug. 2026
69°F oder niedriger
$0 Vol.
5%
70-71°F
$0 Vol.
7%
72-73°F
$0 Vol.
11%
74-75°F
$0 Vol.
24%
76-77°F
$0 Vol.
24%
78-79°F
$0 Vol.
15%
80-81°F
$0 Vol.
9%
82-83 °F
$0 Vol.
11%
84-85 °F
$0 Vol.
5%
30–30,5°C
$0 Vol.
5%
88°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs near 70–72°F on August 26, consistent with August climatology shaped by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% across the 69–83°F bins, as traders weigh typical coastal cooling against minor variability from haze or brief clearing. The 50% odds on 88°F or higher reflect low but non-zero tail risk if the marine layer weakens unusually, while the 2.5% on 84–85°F and sub-70% outcomes align with historical rarity of extremes under current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ET
Volumen
$0Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs near 70–72°F on August 26, consistent with August climatology shaped by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% across the 69–83°F bins, as traders weigh typical coastal cooling against minor variability from haze or brief clearing. The 50% odds on 88°F or higher reflect low but non-zero tail risk if the marine layer weakens unusually, while the 2.5% on 84–85°F and sub-70% outcomes align with historical rarity of extremes under current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 26 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data is unavailable or missing for the observation period, Weather Underground will be used as the secondary resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$0Enddatum
26. Aug. 2026Markt eröffnet
Aug 24, 2026, 8:57 PM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent National Weather Service forecasts and ensemble model guidance indicate San Francisco highs near 70–72°F on August 26, consistent with August climatology shaped by the persistent marine layer and onshore flow. This equilibrium supports closely matched market-implied odds near 49–50% across the 69–83°F bins, as traders weigh typical coastal cooling against minor variability from haze or brief clearing. The 50% odds on 88°F or higher reflect low but non-zero tail risk if the marine layer weakens unusually, while the 2.5% on 84–85°F and sub-70% outcomes align with historical rarity of extremes under current steering patterns and sea-surface temperatures. Updated model runs tomorrow morning will refine these probabilities ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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