**Official forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory (HKO) indicate a maximum of 26–29°C on August 25 amid a persistent broad trough of low pressure over southern China, driving unsettled conditions with cloudy skies, frequent showers, and squally thunderstorms.** Heavy rain at times is expected, which limits solar heating and caps daytime peaks through extensive cloud cover and evaporative cooling. Southerly winds of force 4–5 (occasionally 6 offshore or on high ground) advect moist maritime air, sustaining high humidity (80–95%) that favors convection over clear-sky warming. Recent observations show highs of 31–33°C on August 23 under partly clearer conditions, but the trough’s strengthening influence is shifting the pattern toward greater cloudiness and precipitation by midweek, aligning with climatological tendencies for late-August instability. Ensemble model spreads and timing uncertainties around shower intensity explain the tight market clustering around 29–32°C: lighter or delayed rain could allow brief breaks of sun to push readings toward 31–32°C, while earlier or heavier convection would anchor values near or below 29°C. The HKO’s authoritative range provides the strongest downward pressure on probabilities for extremes above 33°C or below 28°C.